501
FXUS64 KFWD 171030
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (20-30% CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE 90S AND LOWER-100S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER TEXAS THIS
LAST WEEK SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE WEST, THERE WILL BE ONE
MORE DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-30% CHANCE)
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BULK OF ANY STORMS
THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG OR WEST OF US-281, BUT A
STRAY STORM OR TWO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS EAST TEXAS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
FOR STORMS AS HEIGHT RISES INDUCE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE UPPER-80S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO THE
LOW-90S IN EAST TEXAS.
ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING
TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET GIVING WAY TO A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE MID-90S INTO THE
LOW-100S EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR
TWO COLDER THAN FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS SOIL MOISTURE FROM RECENT
HEAVY RAINS EVAPORATES INCREASING THE HUMIDITY (AND SPECIFIC
HEAT) OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, MUCH DRIER SOILS ARE
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING UPPER-90S AND LOWER-100S TO BE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR ZERO DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THIS MORNING. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO 015
CIGS AT METROPLEX TAF SITES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS IN
UPSTREAM OBS. INCLUDED AN IFR TEMPO AT ACT FOR THE SAME REASONING.
WHILE MOST AREAS OF LOW-STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 14Z/15Z,
LINGERING PATCHES OF BKN MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE AS LATE AS 17Z
(PARTICULARLY AT KACT, KAFW AND KFTW). AFTER A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT SCT TO BKN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SOUTH WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS (GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS TODAY
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z).
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 76 95 77 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 93 75 93 75 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 91 74 93 74 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 92 75 96 75 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 92 75 94 76 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 93 77 96 77 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 93 74 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 93 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 92 74 93 74 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 89 73 94 73 / 20 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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