326
FXUS64 KFWD 211034
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
8PM TONIGHT FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 112 DEGREES.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 108
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
HOT, HUMID, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW IN
RESPONSE TO A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 97 TO 105. MODERATE
HUMIDITY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN AMBIENT TEMPERATURES, RANGING BETWEEN 100-112. HAVE
EXPANDED THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF OUR BIG
COUNTRY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS IN OUR
NORTHEAST, MAINLY NEAR/EAST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20 WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR MORE EXCESSIVE HEAT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS UP TO
AROUND 105 AND HEAT INDICES UP TO 112. DUE TO THIS, HAVE DECIDED
TO UPGRADE THE HEAT ADVISORY TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST QUADRANT THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER IN REGARDS TO THE TEMPERATURES,
AS GUIDANCE SHOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE DAY. WHILE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HOT DAY,
AREAS IN OUR NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY OBSERVE
SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES, WHICH WOULD PUT
SOMEWHAT OF A WRENCH IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES
AND/OR EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
BETWEEN 98 TO 105, WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 112-113. FOR NOW, WILL
JUST TAKE ADVISORY ISSUANCES DAY BY DAY, AND WILL ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT TO MAKE THE FINAL CONFIGURATION FOR WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS,
MAKE SURE TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED AS WE GO THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK!
A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM AND SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
PULSE UP SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE INTRUSION OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH THE HIGH STILL
BEARING DOWN OVERHEAD AND ONLY A MEAGER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH WOULD EVEN DEVELOP. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE
MODEL RUNS FOR ANY BETTER ALIGNMENT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM OUR BACKDOOR FRONT WILL STICK
AROUND ON THURSDAY, THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL PEAK IN THE
MID 90S TO AROUND 102-103. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
BETWEEN 99-109. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS WHAT IS NOW
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NEAR/ALONG THE GULF
COAST INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOISTURE FROM BERTHA MAY SPREAD INTO
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE
MAJORITY OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH AT
THIS TIME, MEANING RAIN CHANCES MAY ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE (GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT IT THAN THE ECMWF),
SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND IF THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE GOING WHOLESALE ON ANY RAIN CHANCES.
OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
103-104 EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY ONWARD, WITH HEAD INDICES UP TO
AROUND 110. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES (AND POTENTIALLY EXTREME
HEAT WARNINGS) WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, BUT THE FINAL DECISIONS WILL
BE MADE IN THE COMING DAYS. MAKE SURE TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED,
AND AVOID EXCESS TIME OUTDOORS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES, WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO VEER A BIT MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5-7 KT. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THIS EVENING, BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT IN SPEED AND ONCE AGAIN VEER
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-7 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AT THE
D10 AIRPORTS. ACT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 105 84 104 82 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 100 81 101 82 / 0 0 10 0
PARIS 100 79 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 105 81 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 104 81 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 105 85 104 82 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 103 80 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 101 82 101 80 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 100 80 102 81 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 103 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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