417
FXUS64 KFWD 211846
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
146 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. DANGEROUS HEAT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
8PM TONIGHT FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 112 DEGREES.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 108
DEGREES.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THESE
REMAINING AREAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 108 TO 114
DEGREES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
SIGNIFICANT AND HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFLICT NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, WHICH, COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS, WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. THE
PRIMARY REGION OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35, AND NORTH OF I-20, WHERE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105.
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL URBAN CORES WHERE
THE HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SOME LOCATIONS MAY ONLY
MANAGE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BACKDOOR FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SEND HEAT
INDICES ABOVE 110 DEGREES OVER MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. AS A RESULT, THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY, THE ONLY EXCEPTION
BEING THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. EVEN IN THESE
SEPARATED LOCALES, RELIEF WILL BE MINOR, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
STILL WARRANTED.
LATEST EXTENDED RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BEGINNING TO FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER WEDNESADAY AFTERNOON,
DUE POSSIBLY TO SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT. ELECTED NOT TO BITE ON THIS PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, BUT WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY OCCURRING, ASSUMING THIS LIMITED
FORCING PERSISTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST, AS THE
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS SWAY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY AND LARGE, THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE DAILY HIGHS ABOVE
THE CENTURY MARK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ONLY WILDCARD WILL BE THE FUTURE PROGRESSION OF BERTHA. SOME
LONGER RANGE MODELS BRING THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SCOPE OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE, SOME CLOUDS AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED TO SOME OF THE CENTRAL
TEXAS ZONES IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. THIS WOULD
ALSO TEND TO KNOCK DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITHIN THESE
AREAS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE FUTURE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF BERTHA, SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS MODERATE AT BEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
WILL PROMOTE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z THIS
EVENING, AFTER WHICH TIME, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. BY AROUND 11-13Z WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER TO A
NORTH, THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO D10 AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS. WIND
SPEEDS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-7 KNOTS BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BUMPING UP AT
TIMES TO 8-10 KNOTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN D10 DURING THE 15-19Z
TIMEFRAME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 104 82 101 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 81 101 82 99 / 0 10 0 0
PARIS 79 98 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 81 103 79 100 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 81 102 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 85 104 82 101 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 80 101 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 82 101 80 98 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 80 102 81 99 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 77 103 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091-100>102-115>117-130>135-143>148-157>162-174-
175.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ092-093-
103>105-107-118>123.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-095-
106.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ094-095-106.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ129-141-142-156.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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