513
FXUS64 KFWD 220622
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
122 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 115 DEGREES EXPECTED.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH HEAT CONCERNS AND
HEADLINES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
EXPECT EXCESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
PLANTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY, MOST WILL NOT OBSERVE
ANY REAL TEMPERATURE DROP TODAY, OUTSIDE OF OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK AROUND 99-101. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND 100-105 THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT
HUMIDITY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES A BIT ABOVE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES, RANGING GENERALLY BETWEEN 105-115 DEGREES. THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAIN UNCHANGED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAT, A FEW CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPOTTY
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COVERAGE SEEMS A BIT TOO
WIDESPREAD IN THE MODELS WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS AND THE LACK OF A SOURCE OF STRONG ASCENT. HOWEVER, I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
ATTEMPTS NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE HEAT AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE. IN ALL HONESTY, THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE ENTIRE
REGION STAYS DRY, BUT WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A 10% CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW CHANCE.
CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT DIP IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE MID
90S TO AROUND 102. LIKE DAYS PREVIOUS, THE HEAT IMPACTS WILL
REALLY STEM FROM HIGHER HEAT INDICES. MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE RED RIVER AND FAR NORTHEAST WILL OBSERVE PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 105-106 DEGREES ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THAT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE UP INTO
OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY ONWARD. THIS MAY
BRING IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 101 THIS
WEEKEND. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS, HIGHS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO DRIER AIR FILTERING IN,
EXPECT HUMIDITY TO PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BETWEEN
100-108 EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE COMING
DAYS, BUT THIS WILL BE DECIDED ON EACH DAY AS WE GO. REMEMBER TO
KEEP COOL AND HYDRATED, AND TO AVOID EXCESS TIME OUTDOORS DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, BEFORE SETTLING OUT OF THE NORTH NEAR DAYBREAK. OVER THE
COURSE OF TODAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 11KT OR LESS, AND WILL
GRADUALLY VEER A BIT MORE NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME CAMS
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE AIRPORTS, BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH
DEVELOPMENT WE WILL SEE AND WHERE THINGS WILL BEGIN. AS SUCH,
HAVE FOREGONE ANY MENTION OF VCTS/VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WOULD BE
BETWEEN 22-02Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 104 81 100 81 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 102 81 99 80 / 0 10 0 0
PARIS 98 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 102 79 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 101 78 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 104 81 100 81 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 101 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 102 79 98 79 / 10 10 0 0
TEMPLE 102 81 99 80 / 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 104 78 101 77 / 0 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>093-
100>105-107-115>123-130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-095-106.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ100>105-115>123-130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ129-141-142-156.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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