930
FXUS64 KFWD 230615
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
115 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
109 EXPECTED
- HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHILE STILL HUMID AND HOT, EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
BE A BIT "COOLER" COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT WILL PREVAIL TODAY, HELPING TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 101. SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY WILL CAP HEAT
INDICES CLOSER TO BETWEEN 99-109 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
STILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY IN REGARDS TO THE HEAT
INDEX, AND A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OUTSIDE OF OUR
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER COUNTIES.
ON FRIDAY, EXPECT WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM BERTHA TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOISTURE FROM BERTHA IS PROGGED TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
THOUGH GREATEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WOULD MAINLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER, THOUGH WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MODEST IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 IN
THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES REGION-WIDE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS, THOUGH THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD 105-109
DEGREE HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION, THOUGH FINAL CONFIGURATIONS
WILL BE MADE DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS NEXT WEEK,
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PLANTED OVER THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CONUS. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN, EXPECT HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 IN NORTH
TEXAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 98-105 DEGREES,
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAINLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 99-110 DEGREES
EACH DAY, LEADING TO A POSSIBLE CONTINUATION OF HEAT ADVISORIES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAKE SURE TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED OVER
THE NEXT WEEK!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR MUCH
OF TODAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-11 KT THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. LATE THIS EVENING, EXPECT WINDS TO
VEER A BIT MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VFR
WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS, THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD NORTH JUST AFTER THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WITH PROBABILITIES
AT OR LESS THAN 50% AND IT BEING ON THE VERY EDGE OF THE EXTENDED
TAF PERIOD, WILL INCLUDE ANY CIGS WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE IF MORE
AGREEMENT IS OBSERVED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 100 80 98 82 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 98 79 95 79 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 94 75 93 77 / 0 0 10 0
DENTON 99 78 99 81 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 97 77 96 80 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 100 80 99 81 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 97 77 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 98 79 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 99 79 95 77 / 0 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 100 76 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ100>107-115>123-
129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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