074
FXUS64 KFWD 242341
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
641 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 106
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
- ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AS
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES INCREASE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI JUL 24
2026
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BERTHA
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. MORNING OBSERVATIONS, SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AND ACARS SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT A SLOWER DESTABILIZATION
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING MORE GRADUALLY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS HAVE SEEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON
HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS ACROSS THE CLOUDIER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE LOWER TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOWER TO
MIX OUT, ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO STILL BE ON TRACK TO CLIMB
TO NEAR OR LOCALLY JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN IN RECENT DAYS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM WITH NO
CONFIGURATION CHANGES. LIGHT DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE LINGERS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING, LEAVING ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI JUL 24
2026
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK
AS AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOUD COVER
BECOMES LESS PREVALENT AND THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S EXPECTED BY
MONDAY. WHILE SOME AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE
MODEST REDUCTIONS IN DEWPOINTS, HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ROUTINELY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
AND ADDITIONAL DAILY HEAT HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT, A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY, INCLUDING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL BENEATH THE RIDGE, WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
PROLONGED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE EXTENSIVE VFR CLOUD SHIELD OVER MOST OF NORTH TEXAS EARLIER
TODAY HAS FRACTURED INTO SMALL CLUSTERS AS OF 00Z, AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE PAST 06Z TONIGHT. MOST D10 TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH ONLY A FEW INSTANCES OF BROKEN CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 02Z. LATER
TONIGHT, SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BROAD REGION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL SATURATE
SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF BROKEN/OVERCAST VFR
CLOUDINESS AT THE D10 TERMINALS FROM AROUND 08Z TO 16Z. AFTER THAT
TIME, THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH BASED
FIELD OF SCATTERED CUMULUS BY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH, WACO WILL
AVOID THIS RENEWED ROUND OF CLOUDCOVER, WITH ONLY SCATTERED
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA, COUPLED WITH TROUGHING
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL FACILITATE A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 09-13 KNOTS THROUGHT THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 101 81 102 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 77 97 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 79 96 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 80 101 80 102 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 79 99 80 102 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 100 81 103 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 78 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 77 98 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 77 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-116>123-131>134.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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