593
FXUS64 KFWD 251848
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
148 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 109 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED.
- HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VERY LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER A BIT MORE EFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS MORNING’S
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED, HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
AROUND 100 DEGREES.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE, GENERALLY PEAKING BETWEEN
100 AND 109 DEGREES. THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 PM FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN THE GREATEST HEAT STRESS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVERHEAD. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, INCLUDING THE BRAZOS VALLEY, FROM NOON
THROUGH 8 PM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, SUPPORTING
ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF HOT AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMMON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL ROUTINELY REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES.
DAILY HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAT IMPACTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HINT AT EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING BECOMING A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED,
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO RETREAT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. AT THIS RANGE,
THAT EVOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT MODEST TEMPERATURE
MODERATION THAN ANY MEANINGFUL RETURN OF PRECIPITATION, AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY COOLING REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.
WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SLIGHT RIDGE SUPPRESSION TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND, THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE, IF ANY, RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. ANY LINGERING
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
METROPLEX, LEAVING ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO
PRECIPITATION OR AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 100 81 102 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 77 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 77 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 79 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 79 99 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 101 81 103 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 77 98 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 74 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 76 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-146.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
101>107-117>123-131>135-146>148-162.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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