017
FXUS64 KFWD 050535
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AND ARE NOW LESS THAN 10%.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE UPPER-90S TO THE LOWER-100S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE HUMIDITY WILL
BE HIGHER. AS SUCH, HEAT INDICES ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL RANGE FROM 100-105. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR POCKETS OF
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-107 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION
NOR ENOUGH AREAL EXTENT IN THIS SIGNAL TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF
A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
NO CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING CONTINUED SUN AND HEAT. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
MAY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THIS WEEKEND (CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-90S).
FURTHERMORE, RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL
TO OUR NORTH. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN OK/KS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE THAT A REMNANT MCV
(OR SOME SORT OF LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION) MAY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING SUFFICIENT FORCING
ALONG WITH VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW SO WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESS THAN 10%.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SMOKE AOB FL200 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY IMPACTS TO TAF SITES.
AS SUCH, VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (150-190) AT
7-12 KTS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE DURATION
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 101 80 102 81 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 100 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 97 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 101 78 102 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 100 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 102 81 102 82 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 100 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 99 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 102 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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