248
FXUS64 KFWD 061031
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
531 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WHILE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN, LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) MAY
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THE REST
OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER-90S INTO THE LOWER-100S. DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104
DEGREE RANGE.
DURING PEAK HEATING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THERE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY FOR A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, WILL HAVE PRECIP
CHANCES OF 10-15% IN THIS AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALM AND WARM TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID-70S TO THE LOW-80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
A WEAK POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY. PVA FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IN
ADDITION TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
RETROGRADES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION (PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS). AT THE
SURFACE, GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL REINFORCE 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS
COMBINATION OF WEAK LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AREA WOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
I-20 OR EAST OF I-35 (NORTH AND EAST TEXAS). PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AS THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL DRY
AIR TO CONTEND WITH (ESPECIALLY ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS
MIXED OUT LATER IN THE DAY). AS SUCH, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UNDER 20% FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WEAKENS FURTHER AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN THESE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW
(<15%) OWING TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH OR NOT.
..SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA AS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY SUNDAY ONWARD. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF US WILL REMAIN
DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY (10% CHANCE)
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING MORE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF IN ADDITION TO THE
SEA-BREEZE POTENTIALLY BEING ADVECTED FURTHER INLAND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VERY INTERMITTENT FEW012 WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KACT BEFORE 15Z. MORE
WIDESPREAD (SCT/BKN) MVFR STRATUS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH
OF KACT. AS SUCH, VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH FLOW AT 7-12 KTS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 100 80 100 80 / 0 0 10 10
WACO 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 10 10
PARIS 99 77 98 76 / 0 0 20 20
DENTON 101 78 101 77 / 0 0 20 20
MCKINNEY 100 77 99 77 / 0 0 20 20
DALLAS 101 81 101 81 / 0 0 10 10
TERRELL 100 76 100 76 / 0 0 10 10
CORSICANA 99 76 99 76 / 10 0 10 10
TEMPLE 99 75 98 75 / 10 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 100 75 100 74 / 0 0 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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