840
FXUS64 KFWD 062313
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (10% OR LESS) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
IT'S ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMER DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO REACH THE USUAL UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST HALF WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL REMAIN QUITE SPARSE. ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST HALF, LOWER MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES
BELOW 105 ONCE AGAIN TODAY, DESPITE HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER AZ/NM THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING
US THE HOT WEATHER WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND ERODE SOME ON
ITS EASTERN SIDE FROM TOMORROW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR SO FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WEEK, AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE MORE
ACTIVE SEABREEZE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. EVEN SO, COVERAGE LOOKS
TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS.
IN ADDITION, 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP
SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AND WEAKEN BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT SOME OF IT MAY SURVIVE INTO OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING,
HOWEVER, AND HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND BACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND RESTRENGTHEN, WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF OUR
ALREADY LOW PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL AS HEAT TEMPERATURES BACK UP A
FEW DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A RIDGE ALOFT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CALIFORNIA TO NORTH TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
10-15 KT, OCCASIONALLY VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN EAST OF
ALL TAF SITES. WILL NEED TO WATCH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FRIDAY
NIGHT, WHICH MAY MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH ACROSS THE RED RIVER AS IT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES OF IMPACTS FROM TS OR A WIND SHIFT
REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 100 80 99 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 77 98 77 97 / 0 10 0 10
PARIS 77 97 76 97 / 0 0 10 10
DENTON 78 101 78 100 / 0 0 10 0
MCKINNEY 77 99 77 97 / 0 0 10 0
DALLAS 81 101 81 100 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 76 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 76 99 76 98 / 0 10 0 10
TEMPLE 75 98 75 97 / 0 10 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 75 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...30
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