176
FXUS64 KFWD 071043
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
543 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALONG THE RED RIVER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DAILY INTO NEXT WEEK
ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES. FORTUNATELY, MODEST AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY
KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SCATTERED SEA BREEZE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE WE'LL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLIDE WESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH PLAINS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE A RUN AT OUR RED RIVER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
WE'LL HAVE SOME 20% POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE,
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH LOW STORM
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN STRONGER RIDGING TO THE
WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THIS WEEK.
EVEN WITH ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DEVELOPING BENEATH
THIS WEAKNESS IN HEIGHTS ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 10% EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SEASONABLY HOT WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT NEAR 100 EACH DAY.
NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH THE
WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR WITH SOUTH FLOW 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. WE'LL BE WATCHING SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO CROSS THE RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT AND ANY RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 100 80 99 79 / 0 0 10 10
WACO 100 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 100 76 94 74 / 0 20 20 10
DENTON 101 77 99 77 / 0 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 100 77 98 76 / 0 10 10 10
DALLAS 102 81 99 80 / 0 0 10 10
TERRELL 100 76 98 75 / 0 10 20 10
CORSICANA 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 10 0
TEMPLE 99 75 97 75 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 101 74 100 74 / 0 0 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page