271
FXUS64 KFWD 080523
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS
OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT
WITH A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING BACK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET ALTHOUGH WE CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS DRAPED ALONG I-20 AT THIS HOUR. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY BUT THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. THE FOCUSED AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS WHERE WE'LL HAVE SOME
20-30% POPS. WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100
DEGREES, T/TD SPREADS WILL APPROACH 30-35 DEGREES AND WILL BE
MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUST
WITH THE STRONGEST STORM CORES THAT DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RIDGING WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ON SUNDAY WITH
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LIKELY LIMITED TO SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
SPREADING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
99-102 DEGREE RANGE. WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY AND SUNDAY, ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO HIT
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEGREES.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 100-103 DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
CONTINUED DRYING OF FINE FUELS AND LOW AFTERNOON RH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASED GRASS FIRE STARTS ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE
AUGUST.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE SOUTHERLY
WINDS RESUME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE 20%
OR LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WE'LL KEEP ANY MENTION OF TS OUT
OF THE CURRENT TAF, BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POTENTIAL
WIND SHIFTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 100 79 100 80 / 20 0 20 10
WACO 97 76 99 76 / 0 0 10 10
PARIS 97 75 97 74 / 40 10 10 0
DENTON 100 77 101 77 / 20 0 10 10
MCKINNEY 98 76 99 76 / 30 0 20 10
DALLAS 101 80 101 80 / 20 0 20 10
TERRELL 99 75 99 75 / 30 10 30 10
CORSICANA 99 76 99 76 / 10 0 20 20
TEMPLE 98 75 98 75 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 100 74 100 74 / 20 0 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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