002
FXUS64 KFWD 081851
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
151 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS
OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DRIVEN BY TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE; ONE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANOTHER OVER
FLORIDA. THE SEPARATION IN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE AREAS IS CAUSED
BY A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT WILL LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PART OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE I-20 AND I-30 CORRIDORS, WHICH IS WHERE
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. GIVEN TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 98-101 DEGREES WITH DESCENT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING IN PLACE, OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM. STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN OVERALL WEAK
STEERING FLOW LEADING TO SLOW-MOVING STORMS, BUT THIS THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING REMOVES A SIGNIFICANT
SOURCE OF LIFT NEEDED TO SUSTAIN STRONG AND DEEP CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE AS THE THE
SHORTWAVE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
EXPANDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS.
ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN CONTROL WITH MUCH
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EXPERIENCING HOT AND DRY WEATHER. A
SHOWER OR STORM MAY SLIDE NORTH OUT OF THE GULF COST REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10%. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 DEGREES IN PLACE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT HYDRATION AND FREQUENT
BREAKS WILL STILL BE NECESSARY TO AVOID ANY TYPE OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES.
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING BELOW 10%. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THEREFORE,
WE'LL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR HEAT RELATED HEADLINES ON A
DAILY BASIS.
REMEMBER -- YOU CAN HELP REDUCE THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES
BY STAYING HYDRATED, WORKING IN THE SHADE AND AVOIDING SPENDING
TIME OUTDOORS DURING PEAK HEATING (IF POSSIBLE).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SOUTH WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH VFR
SKIES. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO
IMPACT THE NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES STILL REMAIN GENERALLY LOW. IF A STORM DOES IMPACT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOWS MOST LIKELY IN THE
20-30 KT RANGE. HOWEVER, STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, RETURNING THE REGION
TO VFR AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 100 79 99 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 76 97 76 97 / 20 0 0 0
PARIS 74 98 76 97 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 76 100 77 100 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 76 99 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 80 101 80 100 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 75 99 75 98 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 98 76 98 / 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 97 75 97 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 73 100 74 100 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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