927
FXUS64 KFWD 091732
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
- THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD GRASS FIRE ACTIVITY INCREASES BY
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES.
OUR REGION REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE, ONCE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANOTHER OVER FLORIDA. WITH A
RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN PLACE OVER US, WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER LOW CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEDGE OF MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST, GENERALLY ALONG THE I-20 AND I-30 CORRIDORS. AS DAYTIME
HEATING CONTINUES, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THOSE TWO INTERSTATE CORRIDORS.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION REMAINS LOW GIVEN THERE IS NO FOCUSED
FORCING MECHANISM. ANOTHER AREA TO MONITOR FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY, WHERE SEA-BREEZE
INDUCED ACTIVITY MAY MIGRATE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND REACH
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES.
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN A FAIRLY WELL-MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE
THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORM REMAINS LOW. AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH, LEAVING BEHIND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
TOMORROW, EXPECT CONTINUED HOT WEATHER WITH A ANOTHER LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. COMPARED TO TODAY, THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED, HOWEVER, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL COME ONSHORE DURING THE DAY AND INCH CLOSER TO OUR
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH WITH OUTFLOWS PUSHING NORTH INTO OUR
REGION. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, HOWEVER,
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE CLOSER TO OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
A TRANQUIL MONDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CONTINUED HOT AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. WE'LL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SEE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN A RELATIVE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER OUR REGION.
WITH MOST LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE HOT AND PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER CONDITIONS, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR FIRE
STARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
MID 20% TO LOWER 30%. IN ADDITION, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON AN
UPWARD TREND, PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOULD A FIRE START,
THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE SPREAD WILL BE HIGHER OVER THIS TIME PERIOD
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE ATOP NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN THE 100-102 RANGE WITH 98-100
DEGREES IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
TODAY'S MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE CENTERED AROUND
THE LOW (LESS THAN 15%) CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO WITHIN THE D10
AREA. IF A STORM DEVELOPS, DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN
GENERALLY BETWEEN 21-24Z.
IF STORMS REMAIN CLEAR OF THE D10 AREA, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE WITH VFR SKIES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 99 80 100 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 75 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 78 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 77 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 80 100 81 100 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 76 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 76 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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