049
FXUS64 KFWD 100952
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
452 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY ISOLATED STORMS (10-20% CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG OR SEVERE WIND GUST CAN'T
BE RULED OUT.
- WILDFIRE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK IN TANDEM WITH
THE RETURN OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES YET AGAIN. THE HEAT AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES LOOK TO BE REINFORCED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT FROM THE RETREAT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WITH PRESSURE DROPPING WESTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OUT EAST
AND THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TODAY OF 10-15 MPH, GUSTING 20-25 MPH.
A VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE (NOTED BY A SUBTLE COMPACT VORT MAX AT
500HPA) WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO TEXAS
TODAY. A VERY HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH PWATS IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING
2 INCHES. AS SUCH, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING TO INITIATE VERY ISOLATED STORMS (10-20% COVERAGE) DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTH OF US-84 AND EAST OF I-35. SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY, BUT DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL MIXING MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM, HUMID AND QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE REST OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DAILY HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S. THE AIRMASS ADVECTED IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THIS WEEK ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING INTO THE
1.0 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT,
THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE INSUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS SUCH, THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY
ONWARD IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
INSTEAD OF RAIN, OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO AN INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID/LATE WEEK. A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH.
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY ONWARD.
SURFACE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, RANGING FROM 25-40% EACH DAY (DECREASING WITH NORTHWARD
AND WESTWARD EXTENT). THURSDAY LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BE THE DRIEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE RH DIPPING INTO THE 18-25% RANGE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE US-281 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
A SMALL REGION OF BKN015 STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF KAUS AND
IS SLOWLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD. WHILE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(20-30%) FOR THESE CIGS TO REACH KACT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, PROBS
ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE
ALSO ADDED A FM GROUP FOR HIGHER GUSTS AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WENT WITH 20KT GUSTS, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 100 80 100 81 / 0 10 0 0
WACO 99 76 100 77 / 10 10 0 0
PARIS 97 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 100 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 99 77 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 101 80 101 81 / 0 10 0 0
TERRELL 99 76 99 77 / 10 10 0 0
CORSICANA 98 77 99 78 / 10 10 10 0
TEMPLE 98 75 99 76 / 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 100 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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