621
FXUS64 KFWD 111813
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
113 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS, SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS, AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE DOMINATION OF A SPRAWLING
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA. A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS,
AND THIS HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW AREA WILL TOP OUT AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK TODAY, SLIGHTLYREADINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, AND EXPANDED IT SLIGHTLY ACROSS A FEW OF OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES TO COINCIDE WITH ADVISORIES FARTHER EAST.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY (AND CERTAINLY BEYOND TO THURSDAY), AS DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION, COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DIMINISH TO THE
25-30% RANGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON, EXPANDING
TO A BROADER AREA OF ROUGHLY 25% RH'S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE STEADY
SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH, GUSTING AT TIMES IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH
BOTH AFTERNOON. WITH FUELS CONTINUING TO CURE WITH TIME, THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS AND ELEVATED FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
NO RELIEF APPEARS IN SIGHT FROM THE HOT, DRY WEATHER WHICH
CONTINUES TO GRIP NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
SUBSIDENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WHILE PROMOTING
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
ALTHOUGH DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HUMIDITY AND WIND
FIELDS, IN GENERAL, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DIP BELOW
30% ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS, WEST OF I-35, EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT,
ENOUGH GUSTINESS WILL EXIST FROM DAY TO DAY TO PROMOTE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THE FIRE
THREAT, HEAT INDICES AND WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HEAT
RELATED PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS NEAR AND EAST OF KACT THIS MORNING
HAVE SCATTERED OUT, LEAVING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE AN APPEARANCE AT KACT EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN BKN/OVC COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN CURRENT FORECASTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 100 80 100 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 77 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 78 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 79 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 78 100 79 100 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 80 101 81 100 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 77 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 77 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 76 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 76 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-101>107-
116>123-133>135.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...FENSKE
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