949
FXUS64 KFWD 120516
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
- LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH AN EXPANDING MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLOUD FREE TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 99-102 DEGREE RANGE, BUT A PERSISTENT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AIDED BY DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BOTH DAYS KEEPING HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND MARGINAL HEAT INDEX VALUES, WE'LL FOREGO ISSUING ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL CONSISTENTLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 20-30% WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH AT
TIMES. WITH A LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW
WEEKS, THE THREAT FOR LARGER GRASSLAND/WILDFIRE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD CORRESPOND TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME. WHILE IT STILL APPEARS THAT DEEP
MIXING WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL APPRECIABLY DURING PEAK
HEATING, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH TEXAS AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THAT MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES
OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THEN HEAT INDICES WOULD
LIKELY CLIMB WELL ABOVE 105 DEGREES REQUIRING ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AS CONTINUED DRYING AND
PERSISTENT LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN FIRE
STARTS.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
15 KT ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. ANY MVFR CIGS IN CENTRAL TX
SHOULD REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 76 101 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 77 101 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 78 102 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 77 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 80 102 80 101 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 76 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 75 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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