554
FXUS64 KFWD 121855
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
155 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
- LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR EAST, BUT EXTENDS WEST ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. BREEZY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE AN AVERAGE OF 1 DEGREE WARMER. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS
ARE TOUCHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS HOUR, BUT A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ONLY FOR 4 OF OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY DUE TO AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES AROUND 103 DEGREES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105
DEGREES. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BREEZE DURING THIS PERIOD,
AND RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 25-30% PERCENT, IMPACTS TO THOSE
WORKING OUTSIDE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
OCCUR QUICKLY. EVEN WITHOUT A HEAT ADVISORY, THE MAIN MESSAGE IS:
IT'S STILL SUMMER, IT'S STILL HOT OUTSIDE, PLEASE TAKE
PRECAUTIONS IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS.
AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR GRASS AND WILDFIRES WILL EXIST THE REST OF
TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LARGELY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281, BUT ALSO INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-35/35W. CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BUT THIS WILL BE REASSESSED OVER THE NEXT 12-16 HOURS. AT
THE VERY LEAST, A GRASSFIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, ALONG THE TX/MX BORDER FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION, AND THIS FEATURE LIKELY WON'T
BRING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO US. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A
LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDED CLOUD
COVERAGE. THIS MAY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE BIT ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT
AGAIN, FOR A POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY. IN ADDITION, THERE'S A LOW
CHANCE (<20%) SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATE ON FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LARGE SCALE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND THEN WIND SPEEDS MAY
RELAX A LITTLE NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS FOR FUTURE HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING
IN PLACE. BUT THE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING FROM OUR EAST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, AND WE'LL SEE IF A
PATTERN SHIFT IS IN THE FUTURE FOR THE LATER PART OF AUGUST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT 15-20KT SOUTHERLY WINDS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25KT, TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW
(10-20%) POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT WACO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT WITH
NO SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL TX TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 101 80 101 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 79 100 79 98 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 79 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 79 102 79 101 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 78 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 103 81 101 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 77 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE 77 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 76 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ100-101-115-116.
SHORT TERM...JLDUNN
LONG TERM....JLDUNN
AVIATION...FENSKE
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