803
FXUS64 KFWD 151030
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGHS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND LOW
HUMIDITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL. AS 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACH 600DAM, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO COMBINE WITH LOW/MID 60S
DEWPOINTS TO YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 105. BECAUSE
OF THIS, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CWA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER ON
SUNDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW
105 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE DRIER AIR WILL HEAT UP
READILY WITH DAYTIME INSOLATION AS WELL AS VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, AND AMBIENT TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED 103 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE, A CONTINUATION OF A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR MEETING TEMPERATURE CRITERIA OF 103 AS OPPOSED TO
HEAT INDEX CRITERIA OF 105. LOW HUMIDITY MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT NEW WILDFIRE ACTIVITY, BUT SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS MAY PREVENT THE FIRE THREAT FROM
BECOMING TRULY ELEVATED. CARE SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN TO AVOID ANY
POTENTIAL WILDFIRE STARTS, AS INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS AND FAST
ONSETTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT WILDFIRE IGNITION AND
SPREAD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK,
WITH PERHAPS SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD FEATURE READINGS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS A STOUT UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BECOMES POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS BECOME LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST, INHIBITING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RECOVERY WHILE
DEWPOINTS MIX IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE MET VIA TEMPERATURES
RATHER THAN HEAT INDEX VALUES AS A RESULT. LOW HUMIDITY OF 20-30%
WILL ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN MODEST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME SIGNAL THAT THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND, AND THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY
MENTIONABLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE CWA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE D10 AIRPORTS. MVFR
STRATUS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE WACO TAF SITE THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING, AND CIGS NEAR 2 KFT WILL BE TEMPO'D THERE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH INFREQUENT DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT,
BEFORE SPEEDS SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 101 81 103 80 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 99 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 99 78 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 101 80 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 100 79 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 102 81 103 81 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 100 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 100 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 99 73 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 102 75 104 74 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>095-102>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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