564
FXUS64 KFWD 161037
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
537 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGHS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND LOW
HUMIDITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE
WORKWEEK AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TRIPLE-DIGIT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE ONE BIT OF DECENT NEWS
IN TERMS OF THE HEAT IS THAT HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER, WITH
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO MIX IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HELD TO
WITHIN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY WHERE
BOTH HEAT INDEX VALUES AND ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
ABOUT 103-106. THE LOWER HUMIDITY MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
WILDFIRE STARTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AFTERNOON RH VALUES
FALL INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER, LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH OR
LESS WILL PRECLUDE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FROM REACHING ELEVATED
LEVELS. CARE SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN TO AVOID ANY ACTIVITY THAT
COULD SPARK A WILDFIRE, ESPECIALLY AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY WITH
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED THIS YEAR WILL OCCUR
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN FULL
CONTROL WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT, HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AT THE
FOREFRONT OF FORECAST MESSAGING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING SOME READINGS OF 105 OR
HIGHER, WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, AND ADDITIONAL
HEAT HEADLINES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NECESSARY. THE EARLIEST
THAT RAIN CHANCES COULD REASONABLY RETURN WOULD BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WHEN A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WANT TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND SEND A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TOWARDS THE RED RIVER.
THESE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LARGELY STILL BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS
IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST, WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME OVERALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THERE ARE NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
VFR AND PREDOMINANTLY SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING. ALL MVFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WACO TAF SITE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW DAYTIME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 103 80 104 81 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 101 76 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 101 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 103 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 102 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 104 81 104 82 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 102 76 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 101 76 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 100 74 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 104 74 105 75 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-146-148.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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