697
FXUS64 KFWD 161845
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
145 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGHS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND LOW
HUMIDITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES WEST ATOP NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, WE'LL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 103-104 DEGREE RANGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
DECREASE INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON, HELPING TO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ATOP OUR
REGION. SIMILAR TO TODAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 103-105 DEGREES. THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW WITH EASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS NOW INCLUDED IN TOMORROW'S HEAT HEADLINES. ALTHOUGH
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS, DRY
FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY STILL LEAD TO A FEW GRASS
FIRES GIVEN AN IGNITION SOURCE. THEREFORE, CONTINUE TO AVOID
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A WILDFIRE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
EXPERIENCES SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED THUS FAR
THIS YEAR. HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS WITH WIDESPREAD 103-104 READINGS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER AND DRY
VEGETATION, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK FOR GRASS FIRES
ACROSS THE REGION. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EACH DAY SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD, HOWEVER, THE RISK OF
INITIAL-ATTACK TYPE FIRE WILL PERSIST.
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND, SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10% WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO FAVOR PERSISTING HOT AND DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR AND SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 30 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WITH
LITTLE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AND ADVANCE NORTHWARD
BY MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MVFR DECK
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF WACO.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 104 81 104 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 76 102 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 77 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 77 105 79 104 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 78 104 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 105 81 104 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 75 105 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 75 103 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 74 102 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 74 104 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-146-148.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ144-145-147-
159>162-175.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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