495
FXUS64 KFWD 170607
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
107 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 99
TO 106 EACH DAY.
- LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND LOW
HUMIDITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
EXCEPTIONALLY HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE WORKWEEK WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 102-106 BOTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY, AND A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA DUE TO EXCEEDING TEMPERATURE CRITERIA OF 103. AT THIS TIME,
THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF READINGS OVER 105 ARE A BIT TOO UNCERTAIN TO
WARRANT AN EXTREME HEAT PRODUCT ISSUANCE, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE ONLY BIT OF RELIEF IN
TERMS OF HEAT WILL BE THE CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN AGGRESSIVELY MIX INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO AID IN IGNITION OF GRASS FIRES,
BUT FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER, WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION LIKELY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE BORDER IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD LOCALLY AND THE VERY DRY AIR/DEEP MIXING, IT IS QUITE
UNLIKELY THAT WE WOULD SEE ANY ACTIVITY WITHIN NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
A COUPLE OF CAMS DO ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP VERY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
ROOTED ABOVE 10 KFT, ALTHOUGH THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. WE'LL ONLY HAVE
SILENT 10% POPS IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS IS A QUITE UNLIKELY BUT NOT
COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM THE AREA
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, THERE WILL BE LITTLE
ABATEMENT OF THE HEAT WITH HIGHS CONTINUING TO REACH THE CENTURY
MARK THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY,
PLACING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN MODERATE NORTH FLOW ALOFT, AND
THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SEND A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE INTO NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH SOME ATTENDANT LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
AND THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PROGGED
TO EXPAND EASTWARD AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND, IT IS LIKELY THAT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY 7-10 PERIOD AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY DURING THE DAYTIME, BEFORE RETURNING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 8 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD, THESE
SMALL DIRECTIONAL FLUCTUATIONS SHOULD HAVE NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT
AT THE TAF SITES. A FEW HIGH-BASED RAIN SHOWERS MAY ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE D10 AIRPORTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 104 80 106 82 / 0 0 10 0
WACO 101 76 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 103 77 104 77 / 0 0 10 10
DENTON 103 77 106 79 / 0 0 10 10
MCKINNEY 103 78 104 79 / 0 0 10 0
DALLAS 104 81 106 82 / 0 0 10 0
TERRELL 102 75 105 78 / 0 0 10 0
CORSICANA 102 75 104 78 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 102 74 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 104 74 106 76 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-146-148.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ144-145-147-
159>162-175.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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