586
FXUS64 KFWD 181044
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR TEMPERATURES UP TO 108 DEGREES, WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AREA-WIDE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK, AND LOW
HUMIDITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A
STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 100-108, WITH THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTH TEXAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 105, WHILE A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 105.
DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS AGGRESSIVELY MIXING INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL MOSTLY BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE, THE LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OF 20-30% WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY, AND CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID SPARKING A
GRASS FIRE AS FUELS BECOME INCREASINGLY DRY AMID WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. FORMALLY, THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL NOT REACH
ELEVATED LEVELS DUE TO FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT 10 MPH OR
LESS AGAIN TODAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK, PLACING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL DO LITTLE
TO MITIGATE THE ONGOING HEAT, WITH HIGHS OF 98-104 STILL LIKELY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND DESPITE THE PATTERN SHIFT.
HOWEVER, WHAT THIS MAY ALLOW FOR IS THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE WOULD ALSO
NOT CONTAIN A NOTEWORTHY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE, ITS CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR
NOW, POPS REMAIN AROUND 10% OR LESS AND ARE BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. HOWEVER, IF GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
AGREE ON GREATER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK, POPS
MAY BE INCREASED TO 20-30% IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE IS THE ONLY GUIDANCE THAT HAS CONSISTENTLY
BEEN BULLISH WITH THIS POTENTIAL, AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD EXPECT TO BE RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. FOLLOWING THIS BRIEF FRONTAL INTRUSION, THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AGAIN NEXT WEEK, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY 7-10 TIME RANGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 106 82 105 82 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 104 80 102 79 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 106 81 104 80 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 106 82 106 82 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 105 81 105 81 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 106 83 106 83 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 106 80 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 104 79 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 103 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 106 78 107 78 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>134.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ135-144>148-
159>162-175.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ141>143-156>158-174.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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