876
FXUS64 KFWD 211908
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
208 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY, AND A
FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED
WILDFIRE STARTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
IT'S ANOTHER HOT AUGUST DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. FORECAST HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY OVERNIGHT STORMS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA, WHICH SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JACKSBORO TO FORT WORTH TO
NORTH OF ATHENS. CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE OUTFLOW HAS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT - MAINLY IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WHICH WERE REMOVED FROM THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND
REPLACED WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE METROPLEX WILL STILL SEE
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES, SO NOT MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE HAZARDS ATTM. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES, MORNING
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
SOUTHERN METROPLEX EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS, AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EAST OF
I-35E AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED. GIVEN THE
HOT AND DRY INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, EARLIER CAM AND MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST COUNTIES BUT
HAVE BACKED OFF IN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTH FOR NOW BUT NOTE THESE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS ALSO OF LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE AS
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN.
IN GENERAL, ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL INTO THE 100S FOR
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, AND HAVE EXTENDED THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW ACCORDINGLY.
HOWEVER, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE, AND SEVERAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN THE
AFTERNOON THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
EVENING. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FOR TOMORROW. DEPENDENT ON IF/WHEN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS DO FORM ON
SATURDAY, THIS MAY CREATE HAVOC WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT HEADLINES. ONCE AGAIN, A VERY HOT AND DRY
TROPOSPHERE WOULD ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE H5 RIDGE
BUILDING/SHIFTED EASTWARD CLOSER TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL HEATING US UP A NOTCH. IN
FACT, ONE OR MORE OF THESE DAYS COULD BE THE HOTTEST OF THE SUMMER
AS HIGHS GET CLOSE TO THE 110 MARK. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
WHILE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST, ALLOWING FOR STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL LOWER OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR LOW
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY OUR EAST HALF. EVEN SO, IT WILL
STILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND 100S AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE END OF AUGUST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
D10: D10 AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN IN E-SE FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 22Z
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A S-SE FLOW. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANOTHER
WIND SHIFT LATE TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 14-15Z, WHERE WINDS WILL
VEER OUT OF THE W-WSW GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THE D10 AIRSPACE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANY STORM WOULD
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS,
RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY STORM
ACTIVITY, SO WILL FOREGO INCLUSION IN THE WRITTEN TAF.
ACT: EXPECT S-SE WINDS TO PREVAIL THOUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE A
WSW WIND SHIFT AROUND 14-15Z. EXPECT THESE MORE WESTERLY WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 106 82 105 / 10 10 10 0
WACO 80 104 79 103 / 0 20 20 10
PARIS 77 104 75 103 / 20 20 10 10
DENTON 81 106 79 106 / 10 10 10 0
MCKINNEY 79 103 78 103 / 10 10 10 10
DALLAS 82 107 82 106 / 10 10 10 10
TERRELL 78 105 77 104 / 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA 80 104 79 103 / 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE 79 105 79 104 / 0 20 20 0
MINERAL WELLS 77 108 77 107 / 0 10 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091-092-
100>104-115>121-131>134.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106-129-135-
141>148-156>162-174-175.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ105-107-
122-123.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ105-107-122-123.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ130.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR TXZ130.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...PRATER
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