916
FXUS64 KFWD 212339
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, AND A FEW COULD
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
RAIN-FREE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED
WILDFIRE STARTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE REMAINED RAIN-FREE, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE HAMILTON AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR, BUT WITH SUNSET FAST APPROACHING, NO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS ARE ANTICIPATED. WE HAVE CONFINED THE REST OF
THIS EVENING'S POPS TO EAST OF I-35 IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
(GENERALLY SOUTH OF A CANTON-CORSICANA-MARLIN CURVE) AS ONGOING
CONVECTION TO OUR EAST MAY TRY TO SKIRT INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE LOWERED POPS
IN OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENT AIR AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LIFT WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK WHEN
WE SEE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACH THE RED RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
IT'S ANOTHER HOT AUGUST DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. FORECAST HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY OVERNIGHT STORMS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA, WHICH SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JACKSBORO TO FORT WORTH TO
NORTH OF ATHENS. CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE OUTFLOW HAS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT - MAINLY IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WHICH WERE REMOVED FROM THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND
REPLACED WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE METROPLEX WILL STILL SEE
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES, SO NOT MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE HAZARDS ATTM. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES, MORNING
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
SOUTHERN METROPLEX EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS, AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EAST OF
I-35E AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED. GIVEN THE
HOT AND DRY INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, EARLIER CAM AND MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST COUNTIES BUT
HAVE BACKED OFF IN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTH FOR NOW BUT NOTE THESE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS ALSO OF LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE AS
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN.
IN GENERAL, ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL INTO THE 100S FOR
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, AND HAVE EXTENDED THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW ACCORDINGLY.
HOWEVER, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE, AND SEVERAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN THE
AFTERNOON THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
EVENING. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FOR TOMORROW. DEPENDENT ON IF/WHEN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS DO FORM ON
SATURDAY, THIS MAY CREATE HAVOC WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT HEADLINES. ONCE AGAIN, A VERY HOT AND DRY
TROPOSPHERE WOULD ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE H5 RIDGE
BUILDING/SHIFTED EASTWARD CLOSER TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL HEATING US UP A NOTCH. IN
FACT, ONE OR MORE OF THESE DAYS COULD BE THE HOTTEST OF THE SUMMER
AS HIGHS GET CLOSE TO THE 110 MARK. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
WHILE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST, ALLOWING FOR STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL LOWER OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR LOW
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY OUR EAST HALF. EVEN SO, IT WILL
STILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND 100S AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE END OF AUGUST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
D10: ESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT D10,
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SE FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, AROUND 15Z, WINDS WILL VEER MORE W-SW FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE SETTLING OUT OF THE SE THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SE, LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS AROUND THE REGION MAY CAUSE ERRATIC AND VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION AND WIND
SHIFTS, SO WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE WRITTEN TAF FOR NOW UNTIL
BETTER CONFIDENCE AND MODEL ALIGNMENT OCCURS.
ACT: SE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING BEFORE VEERING MORE
WSW AROUND 14Z. THESE WSW WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE RETURNING TO A SE FLOW THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TO
THE D10 DISCUSSION ABOVE, THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE AIRPORT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN IMPACTS TO THE AIRPORT, LIKE A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF
VARIABLE WINDS. THIS SCENARIO HAS LOW CONFIDENCE AND WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 97 82 106 83 / 10 10 10 20
WACO 104 80 104 81 / 10 10 10 10
PARIS 101 77 102 76 / 20 20 20 20
DENTON 99 81 106 80 / 10 10 10 20
MCKINNEY 98 79 104 79 / 10 10 10 20
DALLAS 99 82 107 83 / 10 10 10 10
TERRELL 101 78 105 79 / 20 10 10 10
CORSICANA 100 80 104 80 / 10 20 10 10
TEMPLE 103 79 105 79 / 10 10 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 104 77 108 78 / 10 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091-092-
100>104-115>121-131>134.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106-129-135-
141>148-156>162-174-175.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ105-107-
122-123.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ105-107-122-123.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ130.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ130.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...PRATER
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