297
FXUS64 KFWD 220625
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
125 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, AND A FEW COULD
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
RAIN-FREE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED
WILDFIRE STARTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
IT'S ANOTHER HOT AUGUST DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. FORECAST HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY OVERNIGHT STORMS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA, WHICH SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JACKSBORO TO FORT WORTH TO
NORTH OF ATHENS. CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE OUTFLOW HAS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT - MAINLY IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WHICH WERE REMOVED FROM THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND
REPLACED WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE METROPLEX WILL STILL SEE
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES, SO NOT MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE HAZARDS ATTM. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES, MORNING
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
SOUTHERN METROPLEX EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS, AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EAST OF
I-35E AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED. GIVEN THE
HOT AND DRY INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, EARLIER CAM AND MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST COUNTIES BUT
HAVE BACKED OFF IN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTH FOR NOW BUT NOTE THESE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS ALSO OF LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE AS
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN.
IN GENERAL, ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL INTO THE 100S FOR
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, AND HAVE EXTENDED THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW ACCORDINGLY.
HOWEVER, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE, AND SEVERAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN THE
AFTERNOON THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
EVENING. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FOR TOMORROW. DEPENDENT ON IF/WHEN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS DO FORM ON
SATURDAY, THIS MAY CREATE HAVOC WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT HEADLINES. ONCE AGAIN, A VERY HOT AND DRY
TROPOSPHERE WOULD ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE H5 RIDGE
BUILDING/SHIFTED EASTWARD CLOSER TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL HEATING US UP A NOTCH. IN
FACT, ONE OR MORE OF THESE DAYS COULD BE THE HOTTEST OF THE SUMMER
AS HIGHS GET CLOSE TO THE 110 MARK. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
WHILE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST, ALLOWING FOR STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL LOWER OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR LOW
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY OUR EAST HALF. EVEN SO, IT WILL
STILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND 100S AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE END OF AUGUST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER SW THIS
MORNING AND BACK SE THIS EVENING, REMAINING LIGHT (<10KT)
THROUGHOUT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TX LATE
THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IMPACTS TO THE D10 TRACON
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION. TIMING HAS TRENDED LATER TO BETWEEN 0-4Z.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GREATER AGREEMENT THAT, IF STORMS DO FORM,
AREAS WEST OF THE METROPLEX ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. THUS,
WHILE STILL A LOW-CONFIDENCE SCENARIO, A TEMPORARY NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT DUE TO OUTFLOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN STORMS DIRECTLY OVER THE
METROPLEX SITES. SINCE THIS WIND SHIFT IS UNCERTAIN, DEPENDENT ON
STORMS, AND LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT
UNMENTIONED AND WILL REASSESS IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 104 83 106 84 / 10 10 10 0
WACO 104 80 105 81 / 10 10 0 0
PARIS 99 75 102 79 / 20 10 10 0
DENTON 104 79 106 82 / 10 20 10 0
MCKINNEY 103 78 105 81 / 10 10 10 0
DALLAS 105 82 107 84 / 10 10 10 0
TERRELL 104 78 106 81 / 10 10 10 0
CORSICANA 104 80 106 81 / 10 10 0 0
TEMPLE 104 79 106 79 / 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 107 77 108 79 / 10 20 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>104-115>121-130>134.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ093>095-105>107-
122-123-129-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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