209
FXUS64 KFWD 221821
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
121 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, AND THESE WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT,
AND A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED
WILDFIRE STARTS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ALL DAY AND OOZED SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY HAS
LEFT THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NORTH OF I-20 WHICH HAS HELD
TEMPERATURES DOWN ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. BASED ON
THIS, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED JACK/WISE/DENTON/COLLIN COUNTIES
FROM THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND PUT THEM IN THE HEAT ADVISORY.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, HIGHS SHOULD STILL EASILY REACH WELL
INTO THE 90S IN OUR NORTH AND 100S ELSEWHERE - WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE EHW.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON,
CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS IDEA IN FAVOR OF THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES TONIGHT, CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR/HREF INDICATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
TEXAS IN THE 03-09Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN THE 70S/80S IS
ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FORECAST REASONING FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO US FROM SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THREE VERY HOT DAYS FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE HOTTEST OF THE SUMMER SO FAR INTO THE 103-113 RANGE.
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THE REST OF THIS THREE DAY PERIOD WILL BE HOT AND DRY.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT AND
SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL "COOL" OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 98-104 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WHILE ALSO BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. DON'T GET TOO
EXCITED, HOWEVER, AS MOST AREAS WILL STAY HOT AND DRY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED HEAT AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN WITH A CONTINUED/INCREASING
THREAT OF WILDFIRE STARTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THIS TAF PERIOD. EARLIER
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO THE NORTH OF D10 HAVE LEFT CONSIDERABLE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE METROPLEX. HOWEVER, NO PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED AT AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, BOTH THE HRRR AND
HREF MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHRA COULD IMPACT D10 BETWEEN 03-09Z,
SO WILL ADJUST THE PROB30 MENTION ACCORDINGLY. SOUTH WINDS 5-10
KNOTS WILL PREDOMINATE BUT WITH OCCASIONAL VEERING/BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHEAST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 83 107 85 108 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 81 105 81 105 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 76 104 80 106 / 20 10 0 10
DENTON 81 107 84 108 / 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 80 106 83 107 / 20 10 0 0
DALLAS 84 108 85 108 / 10 10 0 0
TERRELL 79 106 82 107 / 10 10 0 0
CORSICANA 81 105 81 106 / 10 10 0 0
TEMPLE 79 105 78 105 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 78 108 81 109 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-101>107-
122-123-129-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ100-
115>121-130>134.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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