717
FXUS64 KFWD 230610
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
110 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, AND THESE WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED
WILDFIRE STARTS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ALL DAY AND OOZED SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY HAS
LEFT THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NORTH OF I-20 WHICH HAS HELD
TEMPERATURES DOWN ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. BASED ON
THIS, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED JACK/WISE/DENTON/COLLIN COUNTIES
FROM THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND PUT THEM IN THE HEAT ADVISORY.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, HIGHS SHOULD STILL EASILY REACH WELL
INTO THE 90S IN OUR NORTH AND 100S ELSEWHERE - WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE EHW.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON,
CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS IDEA IN FAVOR OF THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES TONIGHT, CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR/HREF INDICATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
TEXAS IN THE 03-09Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN THE 70S/80S IS
ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FORECAST REASONING FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO US FROM SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THREE VERY HOT DAYS FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE HOTTEST OF THE SUMMER SO FAR INTO THE 103-113 RANGE.
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THE REST OF THIS THREE DAY PERIOD WILL BE HOT AND DRY.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT AND
SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL "COOL" OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 98-104 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WHILE ALSO BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. DON'T GET TOO
EXCITED, HOWEVER, AS MOST AREAS WILL STAY HOT AND DRY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED HEAT AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN WITH A CONTINUED/INCREASING
THREAT OF WILDFIRE STARTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SCATTERED, SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE BIG COUNTRY, ORIENTED
SW TO NE, AND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED NW TO SE
ACROSS THE METROPLEX. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 15-25KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS, BUT WE EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO REMAIN VFR.
LIGHT (5-7KT) ESE WINDS ARE PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD VEER TOWARD MORE TYPICAL SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNRISE
AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. MEANWHILE, LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL SOON NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS OUTFLOW FOR FUTURE AMENDMENTS, IF NECESSARY, TO WIND
DIRECTION AT METROPLEX SITES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 107 85 107 83 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 106 81 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 103 80 104 81 / 10 0 10 0
DENTON 107 84 107 83 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 106 83 106 83 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 108 85 108 84 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 107 82 107 80 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 105 81 104 78 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 105 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 108 81 109 80 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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