884
FXUS64 KFWD 232331
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 102 TO 112 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY, AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
- A DROP IN TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S IS
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURN AREAWIDE EACH DAY. HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WILDFIRE STARTS THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLIER TODAY HAVE DISSIPATED,
WITH JUST SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SEEN ACROSS
THE REGION. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 90S TO MID 100S THANKS TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER, AS WELL AS THE DRIER LOW LEVEL
TROPOSPHERE NOTED BY DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO REACH THE 103-110 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TODAY OF 107 AT BOTH DFW AND WACO
COULD BE TIED OR POSSIBLY BROKEN, ALTHOUGH MORE LIKELY FOR DFW
THAN WACO. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THE REST OF TODAY OR
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE USUAL UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
TOMORROW WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, AND A FEW MODELS SUGGEST
SOME VIRGA OR A SPRINKLE ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD, LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH EVEN DRIER AIR BELOW 850MB
SHOULD PREDOMINATE AND KEEP HIGHS JUST AS HOT OR HOTTER THAN
TODAY. ONCE AGAIN, THE DAILY RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW OF 107 AT BOTH
DFW AND WACO COULD BE TIED OR POSSIBLY BROKEN. ON MONDAY NIGHT,
12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED LOW POPS
(10%) FOR THIS POTENTIAL IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
ON TUESDAY, THE LARGE H5 RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER FOR
WEEKS WILL BEGIN SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE WEST WITH A BIT
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS KS/OK, WHICH COULD SEND OUT
CLOUDS AND/OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MIGHT IMPACT TEMPERATURES
IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN HOW UNCERTAIN THIS IS TWO DAYS
AWAY, OVERALL SETUP STILL ARGUES FOR A VERY HOT DAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW MONDAY'S READINGS, AND ANOTHER
EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND/OR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO AZ/NM WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALOFT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW RAIN
CHANCES AREAWIDE EACH DAY/NIGHT AS ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT
COULD BRING SOME NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING SHOWERS OR STORMS, WHICH
ARE HARD TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY WHICH ONLY CAUSE OUR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
TO WORSEN. HIGHS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND ONLY REACH THE UPPER 90S TO MID
100S. HOWEVER, 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER HIGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BRING OUR TEMPS
BACK UP AS WE ROUND OUT AUGUST AND MOVE INTO SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
OCCASIONAL STREAMING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. A
SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST NEAR THE PANHANDLES WILL AID IN
KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AROUND 11-13 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
AS WE GO THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS
TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE NORTHEAST OF D10 LATE IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON TOMORROW. ANY LIGHT RAIN THAT FALLS OUT OF THOSE
ECHOES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VIRGA, AND SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST OF D10, BUT THERE IS A LOW (<10%) CHANCE THAT SOME
DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AIRPORTS. SIMILAR TO TODAY,
I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF MORE VARIABLE
WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO THERMAL EDDIES, BUT THE OVERALL
WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SW. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR JUST BEYOND THE 30 HOUR
EXTENDED TAF, AND WILL BE COVERED IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 108 84 108 84 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 107 81 105 79 / 10 0 0 10
PARIS 105 78 105 78 / 10 0 10 10
DENTON 108 83 108 82 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 106 81 106 82 / 0 0 10 10
DALLAS 107 84 108 84 / 10 0 0 10
TERRELL 106 80 106 80 / 10 0 0 10
CORSICANA 105 80 105 78 / 20 0 0 10
TEMPLE 106 79 105 76 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 109 79 109 79 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...PRATER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page