634
FXUS64 KFWD 241947
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
247 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING OR HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF RAPIDLY SPREADING WILDFIRES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
MID 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW/SPORADIC RAIN CHANCES.
- HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WILDFIRE STARTS THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR. JUST ABOUT
ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ALREADY ECLIPSED THE
100 DEGREE MARK AS OF 2 PM. AREAS WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20
SHOULD END UP BEING THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS, WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
IN THIS AREA PEAKING AROUND 110 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH
FOR OUR AREA CAN GENERALLY ONLY BE ACHIEVED WHEN THE AIR IS VERY
DRY, AND THAT IS THE CASE TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL
BELOW 25% FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, AND TO AROUND 15% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. WHEN YOU COMBINE THE VERY HOT
AND DRY AIR, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF RAPIDLY SPREADING WILDFIRES
FOR WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTREME CARE IS URGED DURING ALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES WHERE THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR FIRES TO GET STARTED.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXTENDED THE WARNING THROUGH TOMORROW FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS, AND DOWNGRADED OUR
FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES TO A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.
WHILE HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TOMORROW COMPARED TODAY,
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.
THEREFORE, WE MAINLY USED THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE TO DETERMINE
WHERE TO PLACE OUR WARNING AND ADVISORY. AS A REMINDER, OUR
EXTREME HEAT WARNING TEMPERATURE CRITERIA IS 105+ AND OUR HEAT
ADVISORY TEMPERATURE CRITERIA IS 103+.
WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY. THERE IS A LOW (20%)
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CIRCLES AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT THE APEX
OF THE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY EAST TOMORROW AND OPEN
THE DOOR FOR THIS TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA. MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FORM IN THE MID-LEVELS AND FALL INTO A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER,
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER
OKLAHOMA. CONFLUENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE/BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE TOO THIN TO DEVELOP ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, POPS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ARE GENERALLY 5-10%.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE BRIEFLY ALLUDED TO "COLD FRONT" AND SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO SAG SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
AROUND THE RIDGE AND BRING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARD
THE REGION IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA, BUT THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE
OF A FEW SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO BE A LITTLE "LESS HOT", IN THE LOW 100S
AND PERHAPS THE UPPER 90S FOR A FEW LUCKY SPOTS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRIVEN UP A FEW DEGREES THANKS TO
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. MOST OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS LOCATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK BETWEEN 104-106 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL SOMEWHERE AROUND I-20 (GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW COUNTIES), WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE, BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
LIFT.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK, BUT THE MAIN RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR EXCESSIVE HEAT THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. AS A RESULT, RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TO 20-30% ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
RESIDE. THIS WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 100 ON THURSDAY
AND EVEN INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF HTE REGION ON FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, CUTTING OFF RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BACK TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF THESE MOVING INTO
D10 WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 105 84 102 / 10 10 0 10
WACO 79 104 80 104 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 78 103 78 100 / 20 10 0 10
DENTON 82 106 81 102 / 0 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 82 104 81 101 / 10 10 0 10
DALLAS 84 106 83 104 / 10 10 0 10
TERRELL 80 104 80 103 / 10 10 0 10
CORSICANA 79 103 80 103 / 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE 76 103 78 104 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 78 107 78 103 / 0 0 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>094-
100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156-157-159.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ095-106-
107-122-123-135-147-148-158-160>162-174-175.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
TXZ095-106-107-122-123-135-147-148-158-160>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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