268
FXUS64 KFWD 251827
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
127 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING OR HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
- LOW (10-25%) STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
06Z RAP ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE ARKLATEX, ALONG WHICH CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH
INTO NORTHEAST TX THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT DUE TO THE VERY DRY LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VIRGA. GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH THESE VIRGA REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT RAIN MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY TODAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN CREEPING WESTWARD
TODAY, ITS INFLUENCE WILL ONLY WANE SLIGHTLY, AND WINDS WILL STILL
HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
THUS, WE EXPECT ALL BUT THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TX TO EXCEED 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE AREAS REMAIN
IN AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING, WHILE OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ARE IN A HEAT
ADVISORY. REGARDLESS OF THE HEAT HEADLINES IN YOUR LOCAL AREA, YOU
NEED TO TAKE THIS HEAT SERIOUSLY BY STAYING HYDRATED, TAKING BREAKS
DURING STRENUOUS ACTIVITY, AND LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY.
WITH EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS, VERY HOT WEATHER, AND MINIMUM RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 15-25% ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TX, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT TODAY.
DESPITE LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS (10-15 MPH), LARGE FIRES SPREAD IN
PALO PINTO AND HAMILTON/CORYELL COUNTIES YESTERDAY. WE HAVE ISSUED
ANOTHER GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR TODAY BASED ON THESE
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
BY WEDNESDAY, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE RETREATED ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A SHORTWAVE RIDING ITS PERIPHERY TO APPROACH NORTH AND CENTRAL
TX. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE WEAK FRONT IN OKLAHOMA
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA, BRINGING LOW (10-25%) STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPS
BACK TO THE UPPER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING LIGHTNING AND BRIEF STRONG WINDS
DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
UNFORTUNATELY, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE WILL
RETURN EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK UP AND
RAIN CHANCES DOWN. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS ARE
SIMILARLY UNFORGIVING, INDICATING HOTTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
AN ALTO-CUMULUS CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND OUT OF THE
D10 TRACON AREA, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/TOMORROW MORNING, A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
D10 ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER, WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY AND THEN TO NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 14 AND 18Z. POPS
TOMORROW MORNING STILL REMAIN LOW (30%), BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, OPTED
FOR A PROB30 -SHRA MENTION, BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER FOR
THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN SHIFTING SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN EITHER THE DEVELOPMENT OR
LOCATION OF PRECIP TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS ATTM.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 105 85 102 80 / 20 10 20 30
WACO 103 80 104 79 / 20 0 20 20
PARIS 102 79 100 74 / 40 10 20 40
DENTON 105 82 101 75 / 20 10 20 20
MCKINNEY 104 82 101 76 / 30 10 20 20
DALLAS 105 85 104 80 / 30 10 20 30
TERRELL 104 80 104 76 / 40 10 20 30
CORSICANA 103 79 104 78 / 20 10 20 20
TEMPLE 103 78 104 79 / 10 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 108 79 102 73 / 20 0 20 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>094-
100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156-157-159.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156-157-159.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ095-106-107-122-
123-135-147-148-158-160>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....FENSKE
AVIATION...BONNETTE/DAVIS
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