946
FXUS64 KFWD 301016
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
516 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 97 TO 104 WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- FIRE THREAT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS WEEK DUE TO HOT
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING PER 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY
PER LATEST GLOBAL MODELS. RIDGE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY STRONGER
THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH LIKELY
EXPLAINS WHY NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE TOO COOL.
THEREFORE HAVE ONCE AGAIN GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY,
WITH ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY ON TAP IN THE 99 TO 104 RANGE. LIKE
YESTERDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER, BUT POTENTIAL
IS FAR TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE POP. H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS FALLING SLIGHTLY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS
SHOULD THEREFORE BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL
HOT WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 100S AND NO RAIN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVITY ON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS BOTH
DAYS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHEAST
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOONS, AND WILL SHOW LOW POPS
IN THAT AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT, ALBEIT WITH HIGHS JUST A TAD LOWER AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER AWAY. FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND SLOWLY MOVE BACK WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, LEADING TO A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN
OUR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE FORECAST TO BE CENTERED A BIT FURTHER NORTH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THAN RECENT WEEKS, THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW LOW
CLOUDS AROUND 9K FT. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 102 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 101 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 101 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 102 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 103 81 103 81 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 102 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 100 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 102 74 102 73 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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