744
FXUS64 KFWD 312331
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WILL
BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BEFORE ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT RETURNS LATE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST TODAY AMID HOT, DRY
CONDITIONS AND WORSENING DROUGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE NHC FORECAST WIND FIELD
AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
(ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES), AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BRAZOS
VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG, BUT WILL FLOW
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. HTI GRIDS WERE
ALSO ADDED TO INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING,
PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35 TOMORROW
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW POPS (<20%) WERE ALSO EXPANDED NORTHWARD
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL OTHERWISE KEEP AND EYE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WHILE MONITORING THE ONGOING WILDFIRE THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE 594 DAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST
AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE
REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE LOCALLY TODAY, ITS EASTWARD
MIGRATION WILL GRADUALLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO
SPREAD INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TODAY SHOULD THEREFORE BE THE
FINAL LARGELY UNCOMPLICATED HOT AND DRY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO MIX LOWER THAN
BLENDED GUIDANCE, KEEPING HEAT INDICES RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TUESDAY WHILE MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, BUT INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN DRAWING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONSEQUENTLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE
STILL EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UPWARD, BUT THE
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ADVISORY LEVEL VALUES REMAIN TOO LIMITED
FOR A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE MORE NOTABLE FORECAST CHANGE OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. THIS
WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE, BUT RATHER A
LOCALIZED WEAKNESS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORT A
NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD TURN OF THE REMNANT SYSTEM,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER IN HOW LONG A COHERENT
CIRCULATION SURVIVES INLAND. SOME SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A WEAK
REMNANT LOW OR VORTICITY MAXIMUM INTO EASTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, RESULTING IN A NOTABLE NORTHWESTWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN
CHANCES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WOULD TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE INLAND WHILE WEAK CONVERGENCE
AND ASCENT NEAR THE REMNANT CIRCULATION REDUCE INHIBITION AND
MAKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LESS DEPENDENT ON PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
NORTH TEXAS, INCLUDING AT LEAST PARTS OF THE DFW METROPLEX.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVERLAPS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH THE GREATER FLOODING THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE OTHER MEANINGFUL
IMPACT WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONE WOULD
FAVOR HIGHER HEAT INDICES, BUT GREATER CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS COMPETING
INFLUENCE IS ONE REASON CONFIDENCE IN HEAT HEADLINE COVERAGE
DECREASES AFTER TUESDAY DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BUT THE EXACT TIMING WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION WEAKENS. A FASTER DISSIPATING SYSTEM WOULD
ALLOW RAIN TO END SOONER AND TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND, WHILE A
SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.
BY LATE WEEK AND THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE
SHOULD DIMINISH AND ATTENTION WILL RETURN TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON ITS EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH, BUT
THE PREVAILING ENSEMBLE SIGNAL CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RETURN TO PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING BECOMES THE STRONGER INFLUENCE ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS DECREASES WITH TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING,
BUT WILL START TO BACK TO A MORE EAST DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS TD 5 BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE WIND FIELD. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW, HOWEVER, OR GENERALLY IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE, SO WILL STICK WITH THE ONE-LINE TAFS INDICATING
SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR SIMPLICITY. THE EXCEPTION IS KACT, WHERE A
SECOND LINE INDICATING VCSH WAS ADDED AS RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO
APPROACH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AROUND THE EAST FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WOULD LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT (10%) OF A
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF
THE TAFS AT THIS JUNCTURE. BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 100 79 98 / 0 10 0 20
WACO 77 98 75 96 / 0 10 20 30
PARIS 76 98 75 95 / 0 10 0 20
DENTON 77 100 76 99 / 0 10 0 10
MCKINNEY 76 100 75 96 / 0 10 0 20
DALLAS 81 100 79 98 / 0 10 0 20
TERRELL 76 99 75 95 / 0 10 10 40
CORSICANA 77 99 75 94 / 0 10 30 60
TEMPLE 75 99 74 98 / 0 10 10 30
MINERAL WELLS 73 100 73 100 / 0 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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