622
FXUS64 KFWD 012021
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE LOW POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING TO THE BRAZOS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PORT
ARTHUR, TEXAS, STEERED WNW BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE MAINLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LOCAL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 2" ARE MOVING INTO THE BRAZOS
VALLEY AHEAD OF EDOUARD, AND MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND TOWARD THE
PINEY WOODS. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE (10% CHANCE) LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN CENTRAL TX. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK BETWEEN
95-102 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, AND SIMILAR HEAT IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW FOR AREAS WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20. MEANWHILE,
TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE LOW-TO-MID 90S WHERE CLOUD COVER FROM
EDOUARD IS WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY.
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-20 ARE SET TO RECEIVE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM EDOUARD. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, THEN WILL LIKELY EXPAND
NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-45 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY. WE
EXPECT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES, AND THIS
WILL CREATE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAIN FALL. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ANDERSON, FREESTONE, AND LEON COUNTIES FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOST LIKELY PRECIP TOTALS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE 1-3", WITH 6" IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE
PINEY WOODS.
ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LLJ INCREASES AND SUPPORTS THE REMNANT LOW OVER THE REGION.
THIS MAY INCREASE THE FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX
AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY IF THE SAME AREAS RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF I-35
BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN OR ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY, WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED
CONCERNS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA
MOSTLY DRY, BUT WE WILL SEE THE HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOME
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED DAYTIME
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY REGION
EACH DAY, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND HOT TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD ASIDE FROM A LOW (~10%) POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. INCREASING MID-TO-
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF TS EDOUARD SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO TAF SITES REMAINS BELOW WHAT IS
MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (5-10KT) AND GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY, FIRST AT
WACO AND THEN AT METROPLEX SITES. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 30% AT KACT AS EDOUARD OR ITS REMNANTS
PASS CLOSELY TO THE EAST; WE WILL CONSIDER ADDING A MENTION OF
PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WACO IN FUTURE UPDATES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 97 77 94 / 10 20 30 40
WACO 75 96 76 94 / 10 30 40 40
PARIS 74 97 74 94 / 10 10 20 20
DENTON 76 98 74 97 / 0 10 30 20
MCKINNEY 75 95 73 92 / 10 20 50 30
DALLAS 79 97 78 95 / 10 20 40 40
TERRELL 75 94 73 93 / 10 40 60 50
CORSICANA 75 90 75 92 / 10 70 70 60
TEMPLE 74 97 75 96 / 10 40 30 20
MINERAL WELLS 73 100 72 100 / 0 0 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ147-148-162.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...FENSKE
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