842
FXUS64 KFWD 021021
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY
THROUGH 1 PM THURSDAY.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST
OF I-35 WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE SOON TO BE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES (60-90%) WILL BE CONFINED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
HEARNE TO CORSICANA TO ATHENS. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THIS
AREA, ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS (10-30% CHANCE) WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT A VERY LOW DAMAGING WIND THREAT
DURING PEAK HEATING ON THE FRINGES OF EDOUARD'S REMNANTS. CAPE
RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE INCOMING TROPICAL AIRMASS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE GREATER RISK; HOWEVER,
WILL BE FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY. HERE, MOST LIKELY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT MAY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE REGION BECAUSE OF HOW
COMPACT THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS AND RAIN
ARE EXPECTED MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NORTH TEXAS
AND AREAS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35, SUMMER-LIKE
HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER-90S INTO THE
LOWER-100S. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BIG
COUNTRY WHERE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100-103. THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING RH DOWN INTO THE 25-35%
RANGE, AND AS SUCH WILL ALLOW ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THURSDAY, THERE IS STILL A
DECENT SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA
MAY PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE GREATLY INCREASES WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT BEGINNING AT THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WITH UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST, THE VAST MAJORITY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO FALL IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL
LOW AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY
TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THE DFW METROPLEX AND THE I-20 CORRIDOR TO THE EAST. NORTH AND
WEST OF THE LOW-CENTER, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE (10-30% CHANCE) AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR TO TODAY, RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY WILL
DECREASE WITH NORTH AND WEST EXTENT WITH THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES. LOW TO MID-90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
BY FRIDAY, REMNANTS OF EDOUARD WILL BE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED AS DRY
AIR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO WORK AGAINST THE
LEFTOVER TROPICAL AIRMASS. NONETHELESS, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT IN PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT LOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-30% CHANCE) WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB AGAIN STARTING FRIDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER-90S. LOW-90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY WHERE THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALL, AND
LOW-100S WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
..SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE REMNANTS OF
EDOUARD EXPECTED TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY THIS TIME, HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-90S
AND LOWER-100S. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH WEAKNESS IN UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE
WAKE OF EDOUARD. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL RESULT IN DAILY LOW
CHANCES (10-20%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
BRAZOS VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z, BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW
(10-20%) TO INCLUDE INTO D10 TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (~20%) FOR MVFR CIGS AT KACT AFTER 06Z, HOWEVER POTENTIAL
IS TOO LOW AND MENTION WILL BE KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. MVFR AND
ISOLATED IFR CIGS (20-40% CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
BRAZOS VALLEY NORTHWESTWARD INTO D10 TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WHILE THE MOST LIKELY ONSET OF THESE LOWER CIGS WILL BE
06Z-08Z AT D10 TAF SITES, THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE (20-30%) THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
METROPLEX IN THE 02Z-06Z WINDOW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 98 77 94 77 / 10 30 30 30
WACO 97 77 94 75 / 30 40 40 30
PARIS 97 75 95 74 / 10 10 20 10
DENTON 99 77 96 74 / 10 20 20 30
MCKINNEY 96 75 93 74 / 10 30 20 20
DALLAS 99 78 93 78 / 10 30 30 30
TERRELL 97 75 94 74 / 20 60 40 20
CORSICANA 91 75 90 74 / 40 70 60 30
TEMPLE 99 77 95 74 / 20 30 30 30
MINERAL WELLS 101 74 99 73 / 10 10 20 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ135-147-148-162.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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