967
FXUS64 KFWD 030007
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY
THROUGH 1 PM THURSDAY.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST
OF I-35 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE THIS EVENING TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
MARKEDLY LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, LATEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR SOUTHEAST IN THE MID-UPPER 80S INSTEAD OF THE
LOW-MID 90S AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF MASSAGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE REST OF THIS EVENING, NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
REMAINS VALID.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD, LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF PALESTINE, IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PARTS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TX. TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS
BOOSTED RAINFALL RATES, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX OUTSIDE OUR
AREA HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT (WELL OVER 10") RAINFALL FROM THIS
SYSTEM. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANDERSON, FREESTONE, HENDERSON, AND LEON COUNTIES, WHERE TOTAL
PRECIP THROUGH TOMORROW IS LIKELY TO REACH 3-6 INCHES AND UP TO 8"
IN LOCALIZED AREAS. WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BEGIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY. BE SURE TO
USE EXTRA CAUTION AT LOWER WATER CROSSINGS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IF YOU SEE A FLOODED ROAD, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
BESIDES THIS SMALL AREA ALONG AND EAST OF I-45, LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
TX WILL LIKELY NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY EDOUARD. INSTEAD,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE A 10-30% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL TX, WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE HIGHEST. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 EXCEPT FOR OUR FLOOD WATCH
COUNTIES, WHERE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FROM EDOUARD WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 80S.
ON THURSDAY, A LOW-LEVEL WIND RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN
COLORADO WILL DISPLACE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DECAYING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD'S REMNANTS
IN EASTERN CENTRAL TX. AS A RESULT, 10-30% RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY
WILL EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. HIGH TEMPS ON
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 90 TO JUST OVER 100 IN A GENERAL E TO W GRADIENT
BASED ON EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GIVEN LOW RH VALUES (25-35%) AND HOT
WEATHER NEAR 100 EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE BREEZY (10-15 MPH
GUSTING TO 20 MPH) WINDS ON THURSDAY IN THIS AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAD MOVED OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIA WILL BEGIN
TO SLIDE WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY, PUSHING REMNANT
VORTICITY FROM EDOUARD SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
ONCE OVERHEAD, THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
(MID-90S IN CENTRAL TX AND NEAR 100 IN NORTH TX) THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MOST WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE BRAZOS
VALLEY, WHERE MOISTURE FROM ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
E-ESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
OVERNIGHT AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD'S CIRCULATION CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER INTO TEXAS. EXPECT A SLUG OF MOISTURE AND MVFR
CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE REGION JUST AFTER
06Z, MAINLY IMPACTING EASTERN D10 SITES. HAVE TRANSITIONED FTW/AFW
TO A TEMPO MVFR AS MUCH OF THESE CIGS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST, BUT
MAY MOVE OVERTOP THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 08-12Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
CIGS SHOULD LIFT FOR DFW/GKY, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR AT DAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR AS PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
IMPACTING ACT BEGINNING AROUND 15-21Z AND DFW/DAL/GKY CLOSER TO
22-01Z. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING OF
D10 DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING, SO HAVE ENDED THE VCSH AT
01Z. THERE MAY NEED TO BE AN EXTENSION FURTHER INTO THE EVENING
DEPENDING ON FUTURE FORECAST GUIDANCE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 95 77 96 / 10 30 30 10
WACO 78 96 75 96 / 20 30 30 20
PARIS 75 93 74 97 / 20 20 10 10
DENTON 79 97 74 97 / 10 20 30 10
MCKINNEY 76 90 74 94 / 10 30 20 20
DALLAS 78 94 78 97 / 10 30 30 20
TERRELL 76 90 74 95 / 50 50 20 20
CORSICANA 75 89 74 94 / 60 40 30 30
TEMPLE 78 99 74 97 / 20 30 30 30
MINERAL WELLS 75 101 73 99 / 0 20 30 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ135-147-148-162.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....FENSKE
AVIATION...PRATER
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