631
FXUS64 KFWD 030702
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
202 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY
THROUGH 1 PM THURSDAY.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST
OF I-35 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER, THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS TO SLOWLY BRING
THE LOW WESTWARD TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN HILLSBORO AND DFW BY
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER, AND
EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER,
ONLY VERY ISOLATED (10-20% CHANCE) DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THOSE NORTH OF
I-20 OR WEST OF I-35 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN VARY GREATLY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN THE
BRAZOS VALLEY, HIGH HUMIDITY, CLOUD COVER, AND PERIODIC BOUTS OF
RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER-80S. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LEON, FREESTONE, ANDERSON, AND HENDERSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST WILL RECEIVE 1-3 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THIS WATCH AREA, LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS SUCH, THE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY TODAY. FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING 100-105 WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RH TO AGAIN
DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE. PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND THE
ARRIVAL OF EDOUARD'S TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL ALSO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BEGINNING TODAY. THIS
AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE A REGION ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER-90S ALONG WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER-60S AND LOWER-70S WILL RESULT IN FEELS
LIKE TEMPERATURES OF 100-104 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..FRIDAY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS (20-40% CHANCE) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY. WHILE THE
GREATEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTH OF I-20, AND ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE (10-20% CHANCE) ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS AND THE
BRAZOS VALLEY.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LESS ON FRIDAY THAN
THE DAYS PRECEDING IN VICINITY OF THE REMNANT LOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB COMPARED TO EARLIER
THIS WEEK RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON (FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES 100-104 ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS). A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE BIG
COUNTRY MAY SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AGAIN ON FRIDAY DUE TO STRONGER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON THE FRINGES OF THE INCOMING TROPICAL
AIRMASS.
..SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A MORE STAGNANT LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. EACH DAY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-90S AND LOWER-100S WITH THE
HOTTER TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.
MOST WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT A WEAKNESS IN HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN THE
DAILY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-30%
CHANCE) FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
PERIODS OF MVFR (BKN015-BKN030) CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT D10 TAF
SITES THROUGH 19Z BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THESE CIGS WILL PREVAIL, SO TAFS MAY
NEED TO BE AMENDED IF MVFR CIGS ARE LESS PERSISTENT THAN WHAT IS
EXPECTED. RAIN CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF D10 WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE (10-20%) BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z, BUT AGAIN PROBABILITIES ARE
TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 95 75 95 78 / 30 30 20 0
WACO 97 74 95 75 / 50 50 40 0
PARIS 93 72 97 74 / 20 0 10 0
DENTON 97 73 97 74 / 20 20 10 0
MCKINNEY 91 71 95 74 / 40 20 10 0
DALLAS 94 75 96 78 / 40 30 10 0
TERRELL 89 72 95 73 / 80 20 10 0
CORSICANA 87 72 92 74 / 70 40 10 0
TEMPLE 99 73 95 73 / 50 40 40 0
MINERAL WELLS 102 72 99 72 / 10 20 20 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ135-147-148-162.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page