026
FXUS64 KFWD 070453
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED (10-30% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY-WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
8 PM MONDAY FOR HEAT INDICES UP TO 107 DEGREES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 95-103 AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. DESPITE
STRONG DIURNAL MIXING, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 102-107 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WHERE 105+ HEAT
INDICES WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. ISOLATED POCKETS OF 105-107 HEAT
INDICES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF DFW AND
IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY, BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO ISOLATED AND
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY IN THIS AREA
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT GUIDANCE.
A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL BRING WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED (10-25% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO SHERMAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (10-20% CHANCE) WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE US-84 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE WEAKER HEIGHTS
AND MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
STRONG RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
THE 500 HPA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 594-597 DM. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE REINFORCING WIDESPREAD SUN, DRYNESS, AND HOT
TEMPERATURES. DAILY HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-90S (MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE BRAZOS VALLEY) TO THE 100-104 RANGE (PRIMARILY IN THE BIG
COUNTRY). TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE DFW
METROPLEX AND IN WACO AS WELL.
A SUBTLE TROPICAL WAVE MANIFESTING AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH EAST TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
MARGINAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT VERY ISOLATED (10-20% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE US-75/I-45 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN
THE AFTERNOON, THIS MAY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST. A SIMILAR SET-UP WILL BRING THE LOW
POTENTIAL (10-20%) FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
BRAZOS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY AND
GIVE WAY TO MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BY THE END OF THIS WORK
WEEK AS SEVERAL TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING 95-103 DEGREES EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
WEAK SIGNAL IN MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE AREA AND STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TIMING, BUT SHOULD THE FRONT MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER, THE WEEK MAY END WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY FURTHER DISCUSSION, BUT PLEASE CHECK
BACK WITH THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VERY PATCHY FOG (1-2SM) WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z REMAINING WELL EAST OF KACT. ISOLATED SHRA AND
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS (INCLUDING KACT) AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS (NORTHEAST OF D10) BETWEEN 15Z AND 03Z. COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, KACT MAY
BE AMENDED LATER TODAY IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST A GREATER
THREAT TO THE TERMINAL AREA. LASTLY, WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL
BE VERY WEAK (<5 KNOTS) AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
15Z, THEN STRENGTHENING TO 7-12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
(120-160) 15Z THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 100 80 101 81 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 97 77 98 77 / 20 0 0 0
PARIS 100 76 99 76 / 10 20 10 10
DENTON 100 77 101 78 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 100 77 100 77 / 10 0 10 0
DALLAS 100 81 101 81 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 99 76 100 77 / 10 0 10 0
CORSICANA 97 76 98 77 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 95 75 95 76 / 30 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 100 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ091>095-102>107-
118>123-133>135-146.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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