795
FXUS64 KFWD 072316
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
CUMULUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. GOES PW
IMAGERY SHOWS 2 INCH PWS EXTENDING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TX AND INTO LOUISIANA WITH A SMALL DROP IN VALUES
FARTHER NORTH. WE ARE DRIER TODAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WERE
YESTERDAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN OLD REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL PRESENT AND DRAPED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA WILL FEATURE PERSISTENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WITH CONTINUED HEATING WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. SOME
OF THESE MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME 10% POP THERE. OTHERWISE,
IT'LL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 AND HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 104-107 DEGREES.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WE'LL EXTEND THE CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORY CONFIGURATION THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WE MAY SEE A
LITTLE MORE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF THE MID-SOUTH AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTABLE UPTICK IN CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE WE'LL HAVE SOME 20% POPS. OUTSIDE OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE EAST, MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING
WAVE OVER THE GULF WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WE SHOULD
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING MAINLY TO OUR NORTH ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY WHILE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTH RESULTS IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH OUR NORTHERN AREAS (MAINLY ALONG
THE RED RIVER) AND OUR CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION, A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
AFTERNOON HIGHS. OTHERWISE, HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN HEADED INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO AVIATION CONCERNS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO THE EVENING, BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF D10. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 78 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 76 100 76 99 / 20 20 10 10
DENTON 78 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 78 100 77 100 / 10 10 0 10
DALLAS 82 101 81 101 / 0 10 0 10
TERRELL 77 99 76 100 / 0 10 0 10
CORSICANA 77 99 76 99 / 0 10 0 10
TEMPLE 77 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 75 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-102>107-
118>123-133>135-146.
SHORT TERM...DUNN
LONG TERM....DUNN
AVIATION...BARNES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page