992
FXUS64 KFWD 080638
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
138 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORM CHANCES WILL
PERSIST IN THE BIG COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERTOP THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP
US ABNORMALLY WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER, A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE TODAY. THIS
WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL WORK WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TO PROMOTE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35/I-35E CORRIDOR. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY, HOWEVER
INVERTED V PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF A
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS UNDERNEATH ANY DECAYING STORM. PWATS > 2"
WILL ALSO PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DECLINE IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION, EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID
DAY. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 103. WHILE WE
WILL MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUSH PEAK HEAT INDICES TO BETWEEN 99-108. THE HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN AREA
FURTHER SOUTH TO ENCOMPASS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35 THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES > 105.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, BUT A CONTINUED WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF LOW (10%) ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. THE AREA
OF DEVELOPMENT FOR WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE IN THE BIG COUNTRY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS TO THE WEST, THOUGH OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES MAY ALSO SEE SOME SEA-BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HAVE
BROUGHT IN SOME LOW-END POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL OUT
WEST. ONCE AGAIN, GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
LOW STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT AND THE REGION REMAINS WITHIN A WEAKNESS ALOFT. WITH THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED, A W-E MOVING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AND AGAIN OVER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THE
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH, DEVELOPING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN DURING THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES. OUTSIDE OF THOSE LOW RAIN CHANCES, EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, THOUGH PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 105/106. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
EXPECT VFR AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME, HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT ALL 6 AIRPORTS. OUTSIDE
OF THIS, EXPECT PASSING UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS AND SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 102 81 100 80 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 100 78 99 77 / 10 10 0 0
PARIS 100 76 99 75 / 20 20 0 0
DENTON 101 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 101 77 99 76 / 10 10 0 0
DALLAS 102 81 101 80 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 102 76 100 75 / 20 20 0 0
CORSICANA 99 77 98 76 / 20 20 0 0
TEMPLE 100 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 102 74 100 74 / 0 0 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-102>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page