320
FXUS64 KFWD 082311
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST IN THE BIG COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDING ATOP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE RIDGE HAVE TAKEN PLACE OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS AS OVERALL AMPLIFICATION HAS BECOME LESS SIGNIFICANT. THIS
REDUCTION IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IS IN PART DUE TO
THE SHORTWAVES PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. LOCALLY, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG TODAY,
HOWEVER, CONTINUING WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON TO ONCE AGAIN BE HOT
AS TEMPERATURES IN NORTH TEXAS REMAIN BETWEEN 100-103 DEGREES.
MEANWHILE, CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S.
HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 105-109 ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS TOMORROW, THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, COVERING MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
FURTHER WEAKENING IN THE ELONGATED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW,
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF I-35 IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, HOWEVER, LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
BY THURSDAY, RIDGING WILL HAVE REDUCED IT'S OVERALL FOOTPRINT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE A STALLED FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT MOVE TOWARDS OUR
REGION, OUTFLOW-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHWARD AND REACH PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS ON THURSDAY, EXPECT A
SLIGHT REDUCTION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DALLAS/FORT
WORTH METROPLEX, WHERE THE HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK, THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ONCE AGAIN,
REDUCING OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND THERE MAY A FEW OPPORTUNITIES
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER, EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS WEEKEND TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 102.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
EAST FLOW BENEATH A FLATTENING RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO PROPAGATE WEST INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS, AND
HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE DALLAS AREA TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BASED ON
THE SPARSE DEVELOPMENT NEARBY. AT THIS TIME, PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDER ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10KT CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED, AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH PROVIDES
ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 100 80 100 / 0 10 0 20
WACO 77 99 76 99 / 10 10 0 10
PARIS 76 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 20
DENTON 78 100 77 99 / 0 10 0 20
MCKINNEY 77 99 76 98 / 0 10 0 20
DALLAS 81 102 80 101 / 0 10 0 10
TERRELL 77 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 76 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE 75 99 74 99 / 10 10 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 75 100 74 99 / 0 20 10 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...30
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