793
FXUS64 KFWD 091752
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1252 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY FOR MOST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS PLANTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN THE MID 90S IN CENTRAL TEXAS TO AROUND
102 IN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. WHILE EFFICIENT MIXING WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON, HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PUSH PEAK
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 98-107 DEGREES. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN IN A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING, OUTSIDE
OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE LOWEST. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I-35/I-35W CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE REMAINS A LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY TIED TO DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION, AND
SHOULD WANE IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER
SUNSET.
THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN
AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS GOING INTO THURSDAY. THIS SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH, EVENTUALLY STALLING BETWEEN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TOO DISPLACED TO
OUR NORTH TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED
RIVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE IN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, THOUGH MORE ROBUST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING. PWATS > 1.75"
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BRIEF, HEAVY RAIN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER IN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE OVERALL. WHILE THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY ENVELOPING THE REGION WITHIN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT OVERALL CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. EXPECT DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REMAIN IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100, WHILE
HEAT INDICES PEAK CLOSER TO AROUND 100-106. THIS MAY INDICATE A
NECESSITY FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES AS WE ENTER MID-SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
AROUND 5,000-7,000 FT DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESULTING IN A
TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT AT THE WESTERN D10 TAF SITES OR AT KACT,
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERFERENCE, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND
8 TO 12 KTS.
FOR THURSDAY PM, THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IMPACTING D10 HAS
INCREASED, WITH A MENTION OF VCTS NOW INTRODUCED IN DFW'S EXTENDED
TAF AT 21Z. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXISTING ALONG THE RED RIVER DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TOWARDS THE D10 SITES WITH A TEMPORARY SHIFT FOR SOME OR ALL TAF
SITES TO THE NORTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS
GREATER THAN 30 KTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 100 79 99 / 0 40 40 10
WACO 77 99 77 99 / 0 10 10 10
PARIS 76 98 74 96 / 0 40 30 40
DENTON 78 99 76 99 / 0 50 40 10
MCKINNEY 77 98 75 97 / 0 40 40 20
DALLAS 80 101 80 100 / 0 30 40 10
TERRELL 76 99 75 98 / 0 20 40 20
CORSICANA 76 98 76 98 / 0 10 10 10
TEMPLE 75 99 75 100 / 0 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 74 100 73 100 / 10 50 40 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...GORDON
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