822
FXUS64 KFWD 101804
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
104 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTH TEXAS,
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MOST
AREAS RAIN-FREE THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, TODAY WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W-E OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SHUNTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OKLAHOMA
BEFORE STALLING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH AND MOST GUIDANCE PUSHING THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON, MOST AREAS WILL OBSERVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S TO AROUND 100-101. WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES JUST UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
MOST, THOUGH ISOLATED LOCALES MAY STILL REACH THAT 105-106 DEGREE
HEAT INDEX VALUE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH TEXAS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND WILL
EVENTUALLY SURGE SOUTH ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, MOVING INTO
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER AND NORTH OF
US-380, BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE OUTFLOW
CONTINUES SOUTH OF I-20 TONIGHT. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS LOW, THOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY MORE ROBUST CELL OR
CLUSTER. THOUGH PWATS > 1.75" WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN, THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY MEANS THAT NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. MOST AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS
WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY OF AROUND 0.50", THOUGH
SOME ISOLATED SPOTS MAY SEE TOTALS BETWEEN 0.75-1". AREAS SOUTH OF
I-20 AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL OBSERVE EVEN LOWER TOTALS.
MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, GRADUALLY WANING IN COVERAGE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
WILL STILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF
EXITS INTO THE MIDWEST. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST,
EXPECT ANY LINGERING RAIN TO COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
OVER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STUNT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AS
SUBSIDENCE BECOMES THE MAIN FORECAST PLAYER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY AS
EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISPLACING
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE WEEDS
OF SPECIFICS REGARDING EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES,
IT'LL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GO
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MORE DETAILS AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
MAIN CONCERNS... POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN D10 BEGINNING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS BETWEEN ~04-06Z. FOR KACT, HAVE DROPPED
PREVAILING VCTS TO A PROB30 FOR -TSRA, AS THE PROBABILITY OF
TERMINAL IMPACTS HAS DECREASED. IT'S POSSIBLE NO CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OCCURS AT OR NEAR THE KACT TERMINAL TODAY/TONIGHT, BUT
WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
BRIEFLY HAVE E/ESE WINDS IN D10 BEHIND THE ROUNDS OF STORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY ONLY LAST A
FEW HOURS, WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING BY 12Z OR SO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A LOW (20-25%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 98 79 100 / 40 40 0 10
WACO 76 99 77 100 / 20 20 0 0
PARIS 73 94 74 98 / 40 50 0 10
DENTON 75 98 76 100 / 40 30 0 10
MCKINNEY 75 95 75 98 / 40 40 0 10
DALLAS 79 99 80 101 / 30 40 0 10
TERRELL 75 97 75 99 / 20 40 0 10
CORSICANA 75 97 76 99 / 20 30 0 0
TEMPLE 74 99 75 100 / 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 72 99 74 101 / 40 30 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...BARNES
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