296
FXUS64 KFWD 110557
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1257 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MOST
AREAS RAIN-FREE THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIED OFF ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW GENERALLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AT THIS HOUR. MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK ASCENT ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD AID IN A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN TODAY. WE'LL
KEEP ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20%. INTERMITTENT THICKER
CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES
OFF OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 90S.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL AGAIN EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES DWINDLING BACK DOWN TOWARD ZERO
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NUDGING UPWARD A FEW DEGREES. MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE A FEW SITES LIKELY TO REACH 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY, WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIDESPREAD HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR THE REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY MID
WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 100
DEGREES WITH ANY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE REMNANT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INTO. OTHERWISE, LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON TO
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS STALLED ACROSS THE METROPLEX AS OF
0530Z, WITH KDFW AND KAFW REPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS WHILE KDAL
AND KGKY REPORT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH RECENT 5MIN OBS. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR ALL TERMINALS TO RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
LOCALIZED CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINTAINS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION; LOW
PROBABILITY OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS PRECLUDES TAF INCLUSION AT THIS
TIME.
DORNSIFE
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 99 78 98 79 / 40 50 20 10
WACO 99 78 99 76 / 20 20 20 10
PARIS 97 73 93 73 / 30 30 40 10
DENTON 99 73 97 76 / 50 50 20 10
MCKINNEY 98 75 96 75 / 40 40 20 10
DALLAS 99 79 99 79 / 30 40 20 10
TERRELL 98 75 97 75 / 20 30 20 10
CORSICANA 95 76 97 76 / 20 20 20 0
TEMPLE 98 76 99 75 / 10 10 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 100 72 99 73 / 50 50 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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