819
FXUS64 KFWD 140653
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
153 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY PRESENTS WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE 594DAM H5 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESIDES
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A
LACK OF ANY MESOSCALE SURFACE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON
MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN INTENSE SURFACE
CYCLONE PROGRESSES ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, RESULTING IN A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT INCREASES WITH NORTHWESTERN
EXTENT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. WINDS UP TO 20MPH
WILL AID STRONG DIURNAL MIXING TO BRING DEWPOINT VALUES DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 60S WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR; DESPITE THE CONTINUED ABOVE
-AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S, HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES THUS NEGATING THE NEED FOR ANY FORMAL HEAT
PRODUCTS. THAT BEING SAID, THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND REDUCED
RH VALUES TO AROUND 30% WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 8PM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35, WHERE RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND HEAT INDICES OF UP TO 107
CAN BE EXPECTED.
A FEW OF THE CAMS INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE SPORADIC INSTANCES OF CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE BREACHING APPEAR POSSIBLE, PERHAPS IN ADDITION TO SUBTLE
SURFACE CONFLUENCE AS THE WINDS RESPOND TO THE OVERALL PRESSURE
FIELD. ANY THUNDERSHOWERS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL REMAIN
SHORT-LIVED.
WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, SIMULTANEOUS
STRENGTHENING MAINTAINS SIMILAR HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AS HAVE
BEEN PRESENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES APPEAR PROBABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15MPH.
DORNSIFE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND SPRAWLING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND
WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE, THERE IS
A SIGNAL FOR AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL TX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. WE'LL HAVE SOME 20% POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE, THE SIGNAL FOR AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEEK HAS DIMINISHED IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MUCH SLOWER IN ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. THIS ALLOWS RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW DAYS
LONGER, BUT AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH DOES EVENTUALLY
BECOME LIKELY HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST LOW PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KACT: RAGGED LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AROUND 1,500 FT ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AS OF 0630Z. THE KGRK VAD DEPICTS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 190
AT CLOUD LEVEL, WHICH MAY ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 10-14Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL,
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCT OR LESS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL DURING PEAK
HEATING. ANY POTENTIAL OUTFLOW WILL BE MONITORED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ULTIMATELY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 8-14 KTS MAY GUST TO 20 KTS AT TIMES, THOUGH SPREADS REMAIN
TOO LOW FOR ANY OPERATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE AND THUS HAVE BEEN OMITTED
FROM THE TAFS.
DORNSIFE
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 100 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 100 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 100 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 99 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 100 81 102 80 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 100 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 100 76 100 76 / 0 10 0 0
TEMPLE 100 75 100 75 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 101 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
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