540
FXUS64 KFWD 152326
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT MAINLY WEST OF
I-35 THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 90S AS OF 1 PM CT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 101
DEGREES TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WE DON'T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH MID-WEEK, AS A 598 DAM RIDGE IS STILL PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE AN OPEN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE
WEST COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND
SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH/WEST WILL KEEP THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH AND
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY
REGION LATER TODAY, CHANCES ARE AROUND 10% OR LESS. A SIMILAR DAY
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW BUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH SOME OF
OUR EAST TX COUNTIES AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. CONTINUES TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO OUR REGION. OUTSIDE OF
SOME LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ON
THURSDAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE TX COAST ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SENDING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PORTIONS OF OUR
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BRAZOS VALLEY REGION.
NEVERTHELESS, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 EACH DAY.
AS ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, A CHANGE IN THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH/WEST MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA, THE MAJORITY OF
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THIS
DOESN'T MEAN EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE SOME RAIN, AT THIS TIME, MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE BETWEEN 30-50% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
HOPEFULLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE COULD
EVEN SEE THE FIRST DAY IN SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH FLOW AT 6-11 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
01Z TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AND SCT MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. FOG/MVFR CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF KACT, BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS
FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 100 80 99 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 76 98 76 99 / 0 10 0 0
DENTON 78 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 81 101 81 100 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 77 100 76 99 / 0 10 0 10
CORSICANA 77 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...DARRAH/DAVIS
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