079
FXUS64 KFWD 161823
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
123 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT PLAN TO EXTEND IT INTO TOMORROW
AT THIS TIME.
- AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST PRIMARILY WEST OF I-35
TODAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE LARGELY WASH, RISE, REPEAT OF THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AS OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN AREAS OF LIFT TO THE WEST AND EAST. THE AREA OF LIFT TO
THE WEST SHOULD STAY WEST AND NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM, HOWEVER SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS A
FAINT MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST STARTS TO WORK INTO OUR AREA.
SOME AGITATED CUMULUS OVER FAR EAST TEXAS MAY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MEANINGFUL
PRECIP IS 10% OR LESS. THE FIRE THREAT IS STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF US-281, BUT LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE TO CONTROL OF ANY
FIRE STARTS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
THE EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL HOT IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, AND
HIGHER COVERAGE OF THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW-
LEVEL CONFLUENCE OR SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS. MOST PRECIP
TOMORROW SHOULD BE SHALLOW AS UPDRAFTS REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (LCLS/CLOUD BASES AROUND 7,000
FT) AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BASED AROUND 12-15,000 FT).
DESPITE ALL OF THIS ATTENTION ON THE PRECIP, POPS ARE ONLY BETWEEN
10-20% WITH EVEN LESS CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM (<10%)...WELCOME TO
A FORECAST DISCUSSION IN THE MIDDLE OF A WORSENING DROUGHT.
WE ARE PLANNING TO LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS
EVENING WITHOUT EXTENDING IT INTO TOMORROW. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 104-106. TEMPERATURES BEING
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER TOMORROW SHOULD OFFSET THE HUMIDITY ENOUGH
TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT AROUND OR BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW LOCATIONS PEAK AROUND 105 FOR
A COUPLE HOURS, BUT WE DID NOT BELIEVE THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
LOCATIONS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WARRANTED EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE LATEST FORECAST DATA, AND MAY
STILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF THE CONDITIONS WARRANT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE REGION.
THE MOISTURE PLUME DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT-TERM SHOULD GET SHUNTED
WEST AND ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BY FRIDAY. EXPECT HUMIDITY TO TREND DOWN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK, LIKELY RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE MOST CONCERNING FOR
FIRE WEATHER AT THIS POINT AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE
REGION. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GET, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
HAVE A MASSIVE COOL DOWN EVEN IF THE FRONT DOES WORK INTO NORTH
TEXAS. INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT, HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN MID 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE'LL HAVE SOME
DECENT RAIN CHANCES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE FRONT AND SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY ENCROACHES ON
THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED-RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES MAKING A COMEBACK IN THE
MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR AND SOUTH FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. THE
WINDS WILL UNDERGO THE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME DIURNAL TREND WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT VEER TO BECOME
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THANKS TO A MOISTURE PLUME AND
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING A MORE DENSE CU FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW IS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING ANY PRECIP OR ADDITIONAL TAF LINES FOR
THIS ATTM.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 101 80 99 79 / 0 0 10 10
WACO 100 77 99 75 / 0 0 10 10
PARIS 99 76 99 75 / 10 0 10 10
DENTON 100 77 99 76 / 0 0 10 10
MCKINNEY 100 76 99 75 / 10 0 10 10
DALLAS 101 81 100 79 / 0 0 10 10
TERRELL 101 77 100 75 / 10 0 10 10
CORSICANA 99 77 98 75 / 10 0 10 10
TEMPLE 100 76 97 74 / 0 0 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 101 74 100 73 / 0 0 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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