139
FXUS64 KFWD 162314
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE LARGELY WASH, RISE, REPEAT OF THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AS OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN AREAS OF LIFT TO THE WEST AND EAST. THE AREA OF LIFT TO
THE WEST SHOULD STAY WEST AND NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM, HOWEVER SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS A
FAINT MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST STARTS TO WORK INTO OUR AREA.
SOME AGITATED CUMULUS OVER FAR EAST TEXAS MAY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR MEANINGFUL
PRECIP IS 10% OR LESS. THE FIRE THREAT IS STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF US-281, BUT LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE TO CONTROL OF ANY
FIRE STARTS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
THE EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL HOT IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, AND
HIGHER COVERAGE OF THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW-
LEVEL CONFLUENCE OR SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS. MOST PRECIP
TOMORROW SHOULD BE SHALLOW AS UPDRAFTS REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (LCLS/CLOUD BASES AROUND 7,000
FT) AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BASED AROUND 12-15,000 FT).
DESPITE ALL OF THIS ATTENTION ON THE PRECIP, POPS ARE ONLY BETWEEN
10-20% WITH EVEN LESS CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM (<10%)...WELCOME TO
A FORECAST DISCUSSION IN THE MIDDLE OF A WORSENING DROUGHT.
WE ARE PLANNING TO LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS
EVENING WITHOUT EXTENDING IT INTO TOMORROW. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 104-106. TEMPERATURES BEING
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER TOMORROW SHOULD OFFSET THE HUMIDITY ENOUGH
TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT AROUND OR BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW LOCATIONS PEAK AROUND 105 FOR
A COUPLE HOURS, BUT WE DID NOT BELIEVE THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
LOCATIONS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WARRANTED EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE LATEST FORECAST DATA, AND MAY
STILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF THE CONDITIONS WARRANT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE REGION.
THE MOISTURE PLUME DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT-TERM SHOULD GET SHUNTED
WEST AND ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BY FRIDAY. EXPECT HUMIDITY TO TREND DOWN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK, LIKELY RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE MOST CONCERNING FOR
FIRE WEATHER AT THIS POINT AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE
REGION. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GET, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
HAVE A MASSIVE COOL DOWN EVEN IF THE FRONT DOES WORK INTO NORTH
TEXAS. INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT, HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN MID 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE'LL HAVE SOME
DECENT RAIN CHANCES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE FRONT AND SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY ENCROACHES ON
THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED-RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES MAKING A COMEBACK IN THE
MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BY 16Z TOMORROW, WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY TO
130-100 WHILE REMAINING AT 5-10 KNOTS. THERE IS A LOW (<20%)
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR KACT AND SOUTH,
BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE IS STILL TOO LOW FOR ANY TAF PRECIP MENTION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 99 79 100 / 0 10 10 0
WACO 77 99 75 99 / 0 10 10 0
PARIS 76 99 75 99 / 0 10 10 0
DENTON 77 99 76 99 / 0 10 10 0
MCKINNEY 76 99 75 99 / 0 10 10 0
DALLAS 81 100 79 101 / 0 10 10 0
TERRELL 77 100 75 100 / 0 10 10 0
CORSICANA 77 98 75 98 / 0 10 10 0
TEMPLE 76 97 74 99 / 0 20 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 74 100 73 100 / 0 10 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...DARRAH/DAVIS
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