109
FXUS64 KFWD 172314
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WITH LOW (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLIDE WESTWARD TOWARD NORTH AND CENTRAL
TX, MOVING OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SHORT
TERM, CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO DEEP MIXING AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF MORE
ROBUST CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ARCING FROM NEAR KILLEEN TO NEAR
GREENVILLE ALONG A SUBTLE AXIS OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE A LOW CHANCE (~10%)
OF DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF US-377, PARTICULARLY WHERE THIS
MOISTURE AXIS LIES. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING RIDGE
WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
ON SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
SUPPORT LEE CYCLOGENESIS, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX; MEANWHILE, DRIER AIR SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, BREEZY, HOT, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, RAISING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
WE SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER HOT DAY SUNDAY, BUT THE LONG-ADVERTISED
COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
OK/KS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING OUT
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. ALMOST ALL MEDUIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE BECAUSE BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE OUTSIDE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, THE AIRMASS THESE STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
WILL HAVE A HIGH PROPENSITY TO DEVELOP STRONG COLD POOLS. AS WE
HEAD IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL INFLOW TO SUSTAIN A FEW COLD-POOL DRIVEN STORMS OR EVEN A
NOCTURNAL MCS THAT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THE CHANCES OF THIS ARE ABOUT 20-30%.
REGARDLESS OF LATE SUNDAY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK--LARGELY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WHERE WILL THE FRONT BE NEXT WEEK?
THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW FAR
SOUTH IT CAN GET AND EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW COOL THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE. FOR THE MOST PART, THE GUIDANCE
IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS (EVIDENT
BY A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT) BY MONDAY AND STALL NEAR CENTRAL TEXAS
BY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING 20-30% POPS TO MOST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY AND KNOCK DAYTIME HIGHS FROM NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS INTO THE MID 90S.
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS ALSO STARTED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHEAST FLOW APPEARS TO
BE A RESPONSE TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF AND A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S DESPITE OUR HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RESURGE OVERTOP OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS IT STANDS
RIGHT NOW, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT HIGHS REMAIN BELOW 95 FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS AND ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE
FOR CENTRAL TEXAS. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH WINS OUT (60% CHANCE FOR
NORTH TEXAS AND 70-80% CHANCE FOR CENTRAL TEXAS) HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
BONNETTE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF UPTICK IN GULF
MOISTURE MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY. PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
6 TO 12 KT CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 76 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 76 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 77 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 78 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 80 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 76 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 75 99 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 74 99 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 75 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...30
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