233
FXUS64 KFWD 180556
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1256 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WITH LOW (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN
FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WORKWEEK AND BEGIN
THE WEEKEND AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS PREVAIL
OVERHEAD. A 598MB H500 RIDGE AXIS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER AFTERNOON
OF NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 102. DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER AGGRESSIVELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ONCE AGAIN WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S OR
EVEN UPPER 50S, AND THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES VERY CLOSE
TO AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA UNLIKELY TO BE
MET. THE RESULTANT LOW RH VALUES MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH MORE MODEST WIND SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL
PREVENT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FROM REACHING FORMALLY ELEVATED
LEVELS. THIS MAY CHANGE ON SATURDAY HOWEVER, AS RH VALUES WILL
FALL AS LOW AS 25% WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO
15 MPH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN NEXT
WEEK, WITH AT LEAST SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES AND MARGINALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON THE HORIZON. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST SHORTWAVES WILL PULL A FRONTAL ZONE INTO PARTS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. CONVECTION ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO VAGUELY ORGANIZE AND PUSH INTO OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH
POPS OF 20-30% INDICATED ROUGHLY FROM THE DFW METROPLEX WEST AND
NORTH. GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, AT LEAST A FEW ROBUST
STORMS OR SMALL LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
ARE A POSSIBILITY.
THE FRONT ITSELF OR PERHAPS ONE OR MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE DRAPED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS HEADING INTO MONDAY
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT AIDED BY
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREATS WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY, A DEEPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE WILL SEND A SECONDARY STRONGER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS, AND THIS FRONT
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT IT WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE
CWA, PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WHILE STILL DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, THIS BOUNDARY WOULD AT LEAST SERVE TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, WHILE ALSO DELIVERING LOWER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. WHILE STILL A FAR CRY FROM A
TYPICAL EARLY FALL COLD FRONT, THIS SCENARIO WOULD STAVE OFF THE
TRIPLE-DIGIT AND RECORD-SETTING TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL
OSCILLATE BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAYTIME. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF SOME DAYTIME
CUMULUS NEAR 7 KFT ALONG WITH SCT/BKN CIRRUS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 99 79 99 77 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 98 75 98 73 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 98 75 99 72 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 99 77 99 75 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 98 76 99 74 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 100 80 100 77 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 99 75 99 72 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 98 75 98 72 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 99 73 99 72 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 100 73 99 72 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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